Modelling local dispersal of bluetongue virus serotype 8 using random walk

Gerbier Guillaume, Baldet Thierry, Tran Annelise, Hendrickx Guy, Guis Hélène, Mintiens Koen, Elbers Armin R.W., Staubach Christoph. 2008. Modelling local dispersal of bluetongue virus serotype 8 using random walk. Preventive Veterinary Medicine, 87 (1-2) : 119-130.

Résumé : The knowledge of the place where a disease is first introduced and from where it later spreads is a key element for the understanding of an epizootic. For a contagious disease, the main method is back tracing. For a vector-borne disease such as the Bluetongue virus serotype 8 epizootic that occurred in 2006 in North-Western Europe, the efficiency of tracing is limited because many infected animals are not showing clinical signs. In the present study, we propose to use a statistical approach, random walk, to model local spread in order to derive the Area of First Infection (AFI) and spread rate. Local spread is basically described by the random movements of infected insect vectors. Our model localised the AFI centre, origin of the infection, in the Netherlands, South of Maastricht. This location is consistent with the location of the farms where the disease was first notified in the three countries (Netherlands, Belgium, and Germany) and the farm where retrospectively the earliest clinical signs were found. The derived rate of spread of 10-15 km/week is consistent with the rates observed in other Bluetongue epizootics. In another article Mintiens (2008), the AFI definition has then been used to investigate possible ways of introduction (upstream tracing) and to study the effect of animal movements from this area (downstream tracing).

Mots-clés Agrovoc : virus bluetongue, sérotype, fièvre catarrhale ovine, modèle de simulation, transmission des maladies, épidémiologie, modèle mathématique, dynamique des populations, cartographie

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Europe, Allemagne, Pays-Bas (Royaume des)

Classification Agris : L73 - Maladies des animaux
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 4 (2005-2013) - Santé animale et maladies émergentes

Auteurs et affiliations

• Gerbier Guillaume, CIRAD-BIOS-UPR Contrôle des maladies (FRA)
• Baldet Thierry, CIRAD-BIOS-UPR Contrôle des maladies (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0003-2979-9517
• Tran Annelise, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0001-5463-332X
• Hendrickx Guy, Agriculture and Veterinary Information and Analysis (BEL)
• Guis Hélène, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (GBR)
• Mintiens Koen, Veterinary and Agrochemical Research Centre (BEL)
• Elbers Armin R.W., Central Veterinary Institute (NLD)
• Staubach Christoph, FLI (DEU)

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/545953/)

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