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The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use

Souty François, Brunelle Thierry, Dumas Patrice, Dorin Bruno, Ciais Philippe, Crassous Renaud, Müller Christoph, Bondeau Alberte. 2012. The Nexus Land-Use model version 1.0, an approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use. GeoScientific Model Development, 5 : pp. 1297-1322.

Journal article ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact
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Quartile : Q1, Sujet : GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Abstract : Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes, regionally and globally. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use version 1.0 which describes these interactions through a generic representation of agricultural intensification mechanisms within agricultural lands. The Nexus Land-Use model equations combine biophysics and economics into a single coherent framework to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 regions inter-connected with each other by international trade. The representation of cropland and livestock production systems in each region relies on three components: (i) a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs such as industrial fertilisers; (ii) a detailed representation of the livestock production system subdivided into an intensive and an extensive component, and (iii) a spatially explicit distribution of potential (maximal) crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation for farmers. In contrast to the other land-use models linking economy and biophysics, crops are aggregated as a representative product in calories and intensification for the representative crop is a non-linear function of chemical inputs. The model equations and parameter values are first described in details. Then, idealised scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are described, and their impacts on pasture and cropland areas are investigated. (Résumé d'auteur)

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Modèle mathématique, Modèle de simulation, Utilisation des terres, Terre agricole, Biophysique, Intensification, Conservation des ressources, Rendement des cultures, Prix, Biomasse, Plante de culture, Pâturages, Terre cultivée, Agriculture, Bioénergie, Forêt

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Monde

Classification Agris : U10 - Mathematical and statistical methods
A01 - Agriculture - General aspects
P06 - Renewable energy resources
E11 - Land economics and policies
K01 - Forestry - General aspects
E14 - Development economics and policies

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 6 (2005-2013) - Agriculture, environnement, nature et sociétés

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Souty François, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA)
  • Brunelle Thierry, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA)
  • Dumas Patrice, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-3896-7589
  • Dorin Bruno, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-8738-8057
  • Ciais Philippe, CNRS (FRA)
  • Crassous Renaud, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA)
  • Müller Christoph, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DEU)
  • Bondeau Alberte, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DEU)

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/566674/)

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