A simple model for simulating immunity rate dynamics in a tropical free-range poultry population after avian influenza vaccination

Lesnoff Matthieu, Peyre Marie-Isabelle, Duarte P.C., Renard Jean-François, Mariner Jeffrey C.. 2009. A simple model for simulating immunity rate dynamics in a tropical free-range poultry population after avian influenza vaccination. Epidemiology and Infection, 137 (10) : pp. 1405-1413.

Journal article ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact Revue en libre accès total
Published version - Anglais
Use under authorization by the author or CIRAD.

Télécharger (137kB) | Preview


Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Psychologie-éthologie-ergonomie

Abstract : In developing countries, vaccination against highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1 (HPAI) in free-range poultry flocks is usually implemented as periodic campaigns and newborn chicks are generally not vaccinated by farmers between vaccination passes. The demographic population turnover leads to a continuous decrease in the population immunity rate (PIR) over time. We present a simple Leslie matrix model for estimating population turnover and PIR dynamics in a hypothetical small-size vaccinated free-range poultry population. Four different vaccination scenarios were identified assuming necessary procedures to achieve immunity. The results indicate that high levels of population immunity are difficult to sustain. Assuming an animal immunity response of 80% after vaccination and a constant population size, PIR 4 months after vaccination was 30% in all the scenarios. Predictions averaged over time showed mean PIR between 36% and 48%, which is below the population immunity thresholds for eradication approximated from R0 estimates. (Résumé d'auteur)

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Influenzavirus aviaire, Vaccination, Immunité, Modèle de simulation, Dynamique des populations, Zone tropicale, Pays en développement, Volaille, Grippe aviaire

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Kenya

Classification Agris : L73 - Animal diseases

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 4 (2005-2013) - Santé animale et maladies émergentes

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Lesnoff Matthieu, CIRAD-ES-UPR Systèmes d'élevage (MLI)
  • Peyre Marie-Isabelle, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-0887-3418
  • Duarte P.C., ILRI (KEN)
  • Renard Jean-François, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (FRA)
  • Mariner Jeffrey C., ILRI (KEN)

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (

View Item (staff only) View Item (staff only)

[ Page générée et mise en cache le 2020-12-29 ]