Global and regionalized land uses in 2050: scenarios taking into account climate change. [P-2236-05]

De Lattre-Gasquet Marie, Brunelle Thierry, Dumas Patrice. 2015. Global and regionalized land uses in 2050: scenarios taking into account climate change. [P-2236-05]. In : Our Common Future under Climate Change. International scientific conference Abstract Book 7-10 July 2015. Paris, France. CFCC15. Paris : CFCC15, Résumé, p. 382. Our Common Future under Climate Change, Paris, France, 7 July 2015/10 July 2015.

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Abstract : How will future changes in land uses - within regions and on a global level – will affect food security, taking into account possible climate changes, as well as changes in cropping and livestock systems, changes in farm structures, rural and urban relations, food regimes as well as changes in the general context. The agrimonde- terra foresight project on “L and use and food (in) security” considers this question. Launched by the French research institutes Cirad and inra , the agrimonde- terra conceptual framework can be used to build land uses scenarios at national and global levels with narratives and quantitative illustrations. a t national and regional levels, the foresight process involves a group of diverse stakeholders, and discussions on the direct and indirect causes of land use changes facilitate thinking about the possible futures (anticipation), getting new ideas and understanding different points of view (appropriation) as well as decision-making (action). A first workshop has taken place in Tunisia and land use scenarios have been built. On top of that, global and regional levels scenarios are built with the support of a scenarios advisory Committee and their are the basis for discussions on possible consequences of land use changes on food security. t he scenarios have been build combining hypotheses on direct and indirect causes of land use changes, and looking at interactions and retroactions between the variables. The foresight exercice has a wholistic approach.. Climate change is one of the important indirect drivers of land use changes. It impacts the food production capacity of ecosystems in several ways. i t changes the time maturity of crops, it alters annual yields as well as their inter-annual variability, and it changes the nutritious qualities of crops. a s far as climate change is concerned, two contrasted scenarios have been taken into account, focusing on temperature change and biogeochemical cycles. t he first scenario, entitled “Stabilization of Global Warming” corresponds to the RCP 26 the AR5.The agricultural system does not experience any major change due to climate conditions compared to the current situation. t he area of cropland suitable for agricultural production does not notably change compared to the current situation, but the stabilization of anthropogenic emissions requires massive efforts for sequestering carbon in the vegetation which may take the form of afforestation and/or production of bioenergy production with carbon capture and storage, or agro-forestry. Most of the land use changes, however, occur after 2050. t he second scenario entitled “ runaway climate change” corresponds to the RCP 85 of the AR5. The agricultural system experiences strong impacts: there are increases in the area of cropland suitable for agricultural production but it is unevenly allocated as it mainly concerns the northern latitudes while arable cropland areas decrease in tropical regions. The average suitability of cropland areas also decrease significantly. t he combination of the climate change scenarios with scenarios concerning the direct and indirect causes of land use changes show that food regimes, crooping and livestock systems, and farm structures, will have to adapt to new situations (Texte intégral)

Classification Agris : E11 - Land economics and policies
P01 - Nature conservation and land resources
P40 - Meteorology and climatology
A01 - Agriculture - General aspects
E14 - Development economics and policies

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