Climate change projections of West Nile virus infections in Europe: Implications for blood safety practices

Semenza Jan C., Tran Annelise, Espinosa Laura, Sudre Bertrand, Domanovic Dragoslav, Paz Shlomit. 2016. Climate change projections of West Nile virus infections in Europe: Implications for blood safety practices. Environmental Health, 15 (28), suppl. 1. Healthy-Polis: Challenges and Opportunities for Urban Environmental Health and Sustainability, 12 p.

Journal article ; Article de recherche ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact Revue en libre accès total
Published version - Anglais
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Abstract : Background: West Nile virus (WNV) is transmitted by mosquitoes in both urban as well as in rural environments and can be pathogenic in birds, horses and humans. Extrinsic factors such as temperature and land use are determinants of WNV outbreaks in Europe, along with intrinsic factors of the vector and virus. Methods: With a multivariate model for WNV transmission we computed the probability of WNV infection in 2014, with July 2014 temperature anomalies. We applied the July temperature anomalies under the balanced A1B climate change scenario (mix of all energy sources, fossil and non-fossil) for 2025 and 2050 to model and project the risk of WNV infection in the future. Since asymptomatic infections are common in humans (which can result in the contamination of the donated blood) we estimated the predictive prevalence of WNV infections in the blood donor population. Results: External validation of the probability model with 2014 cases indicated good prediction, based on an Area Under Curve (AUC) of 0.871 (SD = 0.032), on the Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve (ROC). The climate change projections for 2025 reveal a higher probability of WNV infection particularly at the edges of the current transmission areas (for example in Eastern Croatia, Northeastern and Northwestern Turkey) and an even further expansion in 2050. The prevalence of infection in (blood donor) populations in the outbreak-affected districts is expected to expand in the future. Conclusions Predictive modelling of environmental and climatic drivers of WNV can be a valuable tool for public health practice. It can help delineate districts at risk for future transmission. These areas can be subjected to integrated disease and vector surveillance, outreach to the public and health care providers, implementation of personal protective measures, screening of blood donors, and vector abatement activities. (Résumé d'auteur)

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Flavivirus, Maladie transmise par vecteur, Changement climatique, Épidémiologie, Surveillance épidémiologique, Télédétection, Cartographie, Gestion du risque, Facteur du milieu, Facteur de risque, Sang, Température, Facteur climatique, Santé publique, technique de prévision, Maladie de l'homme, Maladie des animaux, Modèle mathématique, Genre humain

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Europe

Mots-clés complémentaires : Fièvre du Nil occidental

Mots-clés libres : West Nile fever, West Nile virus, Climate change, Blood safety, Blood supply, Environmental determinants, Epidemiology, Temperature, Surveillance, Arbovirus, Remote sensing, Risk maps

Classification Agris : L73 - Animal diseases
P40 - Meteorology and climatology
000 - Autres thèmes
U10 - Mathematical and statistical methods
U40 - Surveying methods

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 4 (2014-2018) - Santé des animaux et des plantes

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Semenza Jan C., ECDC (SWE)
  • Tran Annelise, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (REU) ORCID: 0000-0001-5463-332X
  • Espinosa Laura, ECDC (SWE)
  • Sudre Bertrand, ECDC (SWE)
  • Domanovic Dragoslav, ECDC (SWE)
  • Paz Shlomit, Université de Haïfa (ISR)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (

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