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Climate change impacts on crop yield in Koutiala, Mali

Adam Myriam, Nenkam Andrée, Diancoumba Madina, Akinseye Folorunso M., Traoré Pierre Sibiry, Traoré Seydou B., Adiku Samuel G.K., MacCarthy Dilys Sefakor. 2016. Climate change impacts on crop yield in Koutiala, Mali. In : Seeking Sustainable Agricultural Solutions AgMIP6 Global Workshop: Oral and poster abstracts. AgMIP. Montpellier : AgMIP, Résumé, p. 42. Global Workshop of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP). 6, Montpellier, France, 28 June 2016/30 June 2016.

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Abstract : An integrated modelling framework is used to simulate crop productivity for current and future climate scenarios. Two crop models, Decision Support Systems for Agro-Technological Transfer (DSSAT) and the Agricultural Productions Systems sIMulator (APSIM), were calibrated and evaluated for the study site in Koutiala, Mali, simulating yields of maize, millet, and peanut for 123 households. These crop models are fed by weather data from baseline climate (1980-2009) from observed weather and future climate (2040-2069) from 5 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) were used as inputs to crop models. The models' results differ according to the crop considered. For maize, there is a decrease of grain yield across all GCMs and crop models. For sorghum, there is a slight decrease across GCMs with DSSAT, but the grain yield remains constant on average with APSIM. For peanut and millet, the results are more optimistic and grain yield increases across all cases. These outputs will then be linked to the economical the Trade-Off Analysis-Minimum Data model (TOA-MD) to assess impacts on farmer livelihoods. Further, adaptation strategies (e.g. drought and heat tolerant cultivars) will be simulated to assess their potential impact for the future. (Texte intégral)

Classification Agris : F01 - Crop husbandry
P40 - Meteorology and climatology
U10 - Mathematical and statistical methods

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Adam Myriam, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR AGAP (BFA) ORCID: 0000-0002-8873-6762
  • Nenkam Andrée, ICRISAT (MLI)
  • Diancoumba Madina, ICRISAT (MLI)
  • Akinseye Folorunso M., ICRISAT (MLI)
  • Traoré Pierre Sibiry, ICRISAT (MLI)
  • Traoré Seydou B., AGRHYMET (NER)
  • Adiku Samuel G.K., University of Ghana (GHA)
  • MacCarthy Dilys Sefakor, University of Ghana (GHA)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/582991/)

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