Modelling the spread of emerging infectious diseases in animal health: case study of lumpy skin disease in the Balkans, 2015–2016

Mercier Alizé, Arsevska Elena, Cauchard Julien, Caufour Philippe, Falala Sylvain, Bronner Anne, Bournez Laure, Ettore F., Peiffer Bruno, Lefrançois Thierry, Gilbert Marius, Tisseul C., Hendrikx Pascal, Calavas Didier, Lancelot Renaud. 2017. Modelling the spread of emerging infectious diseases in animal health: case study of lumpy skin disease in the Balkans, 2015–2016. . Rotorua : s.n., pp. 269-271. International Conference on Animal Health Surveillance. 3, Rotorua, Nouvelle-Zélande, 31 April 2017/4 May 2017.

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ICAHS proceedings (2017) - Modelling the spread of emerging infectious diseas.pdf

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Abstract : The spatial and temporal study of the spread of emerging infectious diseases is crucial to understand their epidemiology and evaluate the risk of introduction into disease-free areas. In this paper, we present a generic method that models the spread rate of emerging infectious diseases that we applied to Lumpy Skin Disease (LSD), a current epizooty affecting cattle in the Balkans, from May 2015 to July 2016. In the study period, 824 outbreaks of LSD were reported in eight countries. Hotspots of viral transmission were identified mainly south of the Turkish/Greek border, southwest of Bulgaria and south of the Serbian/Bulgarian border. By using Thin Plate Spline Regression (TPSR) to interpolate the week of first invasion, we estimated the spread rate based on the mean duration of time for the infection to spread across a given area (1km). The median spread rate was 7.8km per week, with an interquartile interval of 4.6 to 13.7km and a maximum value reaching 375.6km. The distribution of spread rate indicates two diffusion processes: a localised diffusion covering small distances and suggesting vector transmission, and a diffusion at greater distances possibly due to anthropogenic movement of infected animals. Further research should focus on identifying environmental and socio-economic factors that might influence the spread of LSD to better understand the disease epidemiology and suggest targeted control measures. (Résumé d'auteur)

Mots-clés libres : Lumpy skin disease, Animal health, Epidemic intelligence, Spread rate

Classification Agris : L73 - Animal diseases
U10 - Mathematical and statistical methods

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Mercier Alizé, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA)
  • Arsevska Elena, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR CMAEE (FRA)
  • Cauchard Julien, ANSES (FRA)
  • Caufour Philippe, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA)
  • Falala Sylvain, INRA (FRA)
  • Bronner Anne, Direction générale de l'alimentation (FRA)
  • Bournez Laure, ANSES (FRA)
  • Ettore F., ANSES (FRA)
  • Peiffer Bruno, Direction générale de l'alimentation (FRA)
  • Lefrançois Thierry, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0001-8793-5228
  • Gilbert Marius, ULB (BEL)
  • Tisseul C., ULB (BEL)
  • Hendrikx Pascal, ANSES (FRA)
  • Calavas Didier, ANSES (FRA)
  • Lancelot Renaud, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (

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