Effect of Intensification of Crop Management on Cereal Crop Yields under 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global Warming in the West African Sudan Savannah

Faye Babacar, Webber Heidi, Naab Jesse B., MacCarthy Dilys Sefakor, Adam Myriam, Ewert Franck, Lamers John P.A., Schleussner Carl-Friedrich, Ruane Alex C., Gessner Ursula, Hoogenboom Gerrit, Boote Ken, Shelia Vakhtang, Saeed Fahad, Wisser Dominik, Hadir Sofia, Laux Patrick, Gaiser Thomas. 2018. Effect of Intensification of Crop Management on Cereal Crop Yields under 1.5°C and 2.0°C Global Warming in the West African Sudan Savannah. In : Tropentag 2018: Global food security and food safety: the role of universities. Tielkes, E. (ed.). Weikersheim : Margraf Publishers GmbH, Résumé, pp. 617-618. ISBN 978-3-8236-1760-0 Tropentag 2018: Global Food Security and Food Safety: The role of Universities. 20, Gand, Belgique, 17 September 2018/19 September 2018.

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Abstract : Rainfed cereals are the main staple food crops in the West African Sudan Savannah. While current yield levels are low due in large part to the limited use of fertilisers, sus-tainable intensification of cropping systems is widely promoted in the region to im-prove food security and drive regional economic development. However, an important consideration is increased internannual yield variability and possible interactions with climate change, as this represents an important source of risk for farmers. This study assessed the effect of intensification on maize, pearl millet and sorghum yields under 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming in the West African Sudan Savannah. Simulations were conducted with two crop models (DSSAT and Lintul5 embedded into the SIM-PLACE modelling framework) at a spatial resolution of 0.25° under both current fer-tiliser use and optimum fertiliser application (intensification case). The models were calibrated with local varieties from field experiments in the region with management reflecting a range of typical sowing windows. Results indicated that yields simulated under intensification were two to three times higher than yields simulated under cur-rent fertiliser use, irrespective of the warming scenario. However, yield losses under climate change were slightly higher with intensification: 2 % units higher for maize and sorghum with 2.0°C compared to 1.5°C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario. As expected, interannual variability increased with intensifica-tion compared to current fertiliser use, though there was no interaction with climate change scenario. In summary, it is suggested that intensification would much more than offset the negative impacts of climate change, though economics analysis is re-quired to understand the implications for risk and constraints on market development needed to support intensification.

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Faye Babacar, University of Bonn (DEU)
  • Webber Heidi, University of Bonn (DEU)
  • Naab Jesse B., WASCAL (BFA)
  • MacCarthy Dilys Sefakor, University of Ghana (GHA)
  • Adam Myriam, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR AGAP (BFA) ORCID: 0000-0002-8873-6762
  • Ewert Franck, Universität Bonn (DEU)
  • Lamers John P.A., Universität Bonn (DEU)
  • Schleussner Carl-Friedrich, CSC (DEU)
  • Ruane Alex C., NASA (USA)
  • Gessner Ursula, German Remote Sensing Data Center (DEU)
  • Hoogenboom Gerrit, University of Florida (USA)
  • Boote Ken, University of Florida (USA)
  • Shelia Vakhtang, University of Florida (USA)
  • Saeed Fahad, King Abdulaziz University (SAU)
  • Wisser Dominik, FAO (ITA)
  • Hadir Sofia, University of Bonn (DEU)
  • Laux Patrick, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DEU)
  • Gaiser Thomas, Universität Bonn (DEU)

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