Land use and food security in 2050 – the agrimonde-terra scenarios analysis in Guadeloupe

Mora Olivier, Le Mouël Chantal, De Lattre-Gasquet Marie. 2016. Land use and food security in 2050 – the agrimonde-terra scenarios analysis in Guadeloupe. In : Proceedings of the 52nd annual meeting of the Caribbean Food Crops Society: “Engineering Ecological Modernization of Agriculture / Exploring the Potential of Tropical Biological Resources for Innovation / Towards a Bio-Economic Development of Caribbean Co. Naves Michel (ed.), Angeon Valérie (ed.), Merlot Bérengère (ed.), Fahrasmane Louis (ed.), Diman Jean Louis (ed.), Labbé Patrick (ed.), Traffond Patricia (ed.), Colon Wilfredo (ed.), Ozier Lafontaine Harry (ed.). INRA. Le Gosier : Caribbean Food Crops Society, pp. 254-255. Caribbean food crops society annual meeting. 52, Le Gosier, Guadeloupe, 10 July 2016/16 July 2016.

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Abstract : Land use and global food security are major issues because of uncertainties about the planet's capacity to feed a growing population (set to reach 9.7 billion in 2050) in a context of climate change and ongoing debates regarding land use change trajectories. What are the main drivers of land use changes and how do they interact and influence food and nutrition security? How will the agricultural land area change over the next 40 years, globally and regionally? What tensions will there be between food and nutrition security and climate change mitigation in 2050? After a first foresight study published in 2011 on 'World food security in 2050', CIRAD and INRA have turned their attention to a foresight exercise on 'Land use and food security in 2050' that seeks to answer these questions. Five scenarios of land use and food security in 2050 highlight levers that could modify ongoing land use patterns for improved food and nutrition security. This approach provides decision makers, stakeholders, non-governmental organizations and researchers with a tool for dialogue.

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