A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France

Casal Jordi, Saegerman Claude, Bertagnoli Stéphane, Meyer Gilles, Ganiere Jean-Pierre, Caufour Philippe, De Clercq Kris, Jacquiet Philippe, Hautefeuille Claire, Etore Florence, Napp Sebastian. 2019. A simple method to estimate the number of doses to include in a bank of vaccines. The case of Lumpy Skin Disease in France. PloS One, 14 (1):e0210317, 10 p.

Journal article ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact Revue en libre accès total
Published version - Anglais
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Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Psychologie-éthologie-ergonomie; Staps

Abstract : A simple method to estimate the size of the vaccine bank needed to control an epidemic of an exotic infectious disease in case of introduction into a country is presented. The method was applied to the case of a Lumpy Skin disease (LSD) epidemic in France. The size of the stock of vaccines needed was calculated based on a series of simple equations that use some trigonometric functions and take into account the spread of the disease, the time required to obtain good vaccination coverage and the cattle density in the affected region. Assuming a 7-weeks period to vaccinate all the animals and a spread of the disease of 7.3 km/week, the vaccination of 740 716 cattle would be enough to control an epidemic of LSD in France in 90% of the simulations (608 196 cattle would cover 75% of the simulations). The results of this simple method were then validated using a dynamic simulation model, which served as reference for the calculation of the vaccine stock required. The differences between both models in different scenarios, related with the time needed to vaccinate the animals, ranged from 7% to 10.5% more vaccines using the simple method to cover 90% of the simulations, and from 9.0% to 13.8% for 75% of the simulations. The model is easy to use and may be adapted for the control of different diseases in different countries, just by using some simple formulas and few input data.

Classification Agris : L73 - Animal diseases

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 4 (2019-) - Santé des plantes, des animaux et des écosystèmes

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Casal Jordi, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona (ESP) - auteur correspondant
  • Saegerman Claude, Université de Liège (BEL) - auteur correspondant
  • Bertagnoli Stéphane, Université Toulouse 1 Capitole (FRA)
  • Meyer Gilles, ENVT (FRA)
  • Ganiere Jean-Pierre, ANSES (FRA)
  • Caufour Philippe, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA)
  • De Clercq Kris, CERVA (BEL)
  • Jacquiet Philippe, ENVT (FRA)
  • Hautefeuille Claire, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA)
  • Etore Florence, ANSES (FRA)
  • Napp Sebastian, CReSA (ESP)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (

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