Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: Demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam

Delabouglise Alexis, Choisy Marc, Phan Thang D., Antoine-Moussiaux Nicolas, Peyre Marie-Isabelle, Vu Ton Dinh, Pfeiffer Dirk Udo, Fournié Guillaume. 2017. Economic factors influencing zoonotic disease dynamics: Demand for poultry meat and seasonal transmission of avian influenza in Vietnam. Scientific Reports, 7:5905, 14 p.

Journal article ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact Revue en libre accès total
Published version - Anglais
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Abstract : While climate is often presented as a key factor influencing the seasonality of diseases, the importance of anthropogenic factors is less commonly evaluated. Using a combination of methods – wavelet analysis, economic analysis, statistical and disease transmission modelling – we aimed to explore the influence of climatic and economic factors on the seasonality of H5N1 Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza in the domestic poultry population of Vietnam. We found that while climatic variables are associated with seasonal variation in the incidence of avian influenza outbreaks in the North of the country, this is not the case in the Centre and the South. In contrast, temporal patterns of H5N1 incidence are similar across these 3 regions: periods of high H5N1 incidence coincide with Lunar New Year festival, occurring in January-February, in the 3 climatic regions for 5 out of the 8 study years. Yet, daily poultry meat consumption drastically increases during Lunar New Year festival throughout the country. To meet this rise in demand, poultry production and trade are expected to peak around the festival period, promoting viral spread, which we demonstrated using a stochastic disease transmission model. This study illustrates the way in which economic factors may influence the dynamics of livestock pathogens.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Zoonose, grippe aviaire hautement pathogène, Épidémiologie, Commerce agricole

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Viet Nam

Mots-clés libres : Influenza virus, Statistical methods

Classification Agris : L73 - Animal diseases
E21 - Agro-industry
E70 - Trade, marketing and distribution
U10 - Mathematical and statistical methods

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 4 (2014-2018) - Santé des animaux et des plantes

Agence(s) de financement européenne(s) : European Commission

Programme de financement européen : FP7

Projet(s) de financement européen(s) : Providing a new generation of methodologies and tools for cost-effective risk-based animal health surveillance systems for the benefit of livestock producers, decision makers and consumers

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Delabouglise Alexis, Royal Veterinary College (GBR) ORCID: 0000-0001-5837-7052 - auteur correspondant
  • Choisy Marc, IRD (FRA)
  • Phan Thang D., CIRRD (VNM)
  • Antoine-Moussiaux Nicolas, Université de Liège (BEL)
  • Peyre Marie-Isabelle, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-0887-3418
  • Vu Ton Dinh, CIRRD (VNM)
  • Pfeiffer Dirk Udo, Royal Veterinary College (GBR)
  • Fournié Guillaume, Royal Veterinary College (GBR)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (

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