Using a participatory qualitative risk assessment to estimate the risk of introduction and spread of transboundary animal diseases in scarce-data environments

Squarzoni Diaw Cécile, Arsevska Elena, Kalthoum Sana, Hammami Pachka, Cherni Jamel, Daoudi Assia, Laoufi Mohamed Karim, Lezaar Yassir, Kechna Rachid, Seck Ismaïla, Ould Elmamy Bezeid, Yahya Barry, Dufour Barbara, Hendrikx Pascal, Cardinale Eric, Munoz Facundo, Lancelot Renaud, Coste Caroline. 2020. Using a participatory qualitative risk assessment to estimate the risk of introduction and spread of transboundary animal diseases in scarce-data environments. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 26 p.

Journal article ; Article de recherche ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact
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Abstract : This article presents a participative and iterative qualitative risk assessment framework that can be used to evaluate the spatial variation of the risk of infectious animal disease introduction and spread on a national scale. The framework was developed though regional training‐action workshops and field activities. The active involvement of national animal health services enabled the identification, collection and hierarchization of risk factors. Quantitative data were collected in the field and expert knowledge was integrated to adjust the available data at regional level. Experts categorized and combined the risk factors into ordinal levels of risk per epidemiological unit to ease implementation of risk‐based surveillance in the field. The framework was used to perform a qualitative assessment of the risk of introduction and spread of foot‐and‐mouth disease (FMD) in Tunisia as part of a series of workshops held between 2015 and 2018. The experts in attendance combined risk factors such as epidemiological status, transboundary movements, proximity to the borders and accessibility to assess the risk of FMD outbreaks in Tunisia. Out of the 2,075 Tunisian imadas, 23 were at a very high risk of FMD introduction, mainly at the borders; and 59 were at a very high risk of FMD spread. To validate the model, the results were compared to the FMD outbreaks notified by Tunisia during the 2014 FMD epizootic. Using a spatial Poisson model, a significant alignment between the very high and high‐risk categories of spread and the occurrence of FMD outbreaks was shown. The relative risk of FMD occurrence was thus 3.2 higher for imadas in the very high and high spread‐risk categories than for imadas in the low and negligible spread‐risk categories. Our results show that the qualitative risk assessment framework can be a useful decision‐support tool for risk‐based disease surveillance and control, in particular in scarce‐data environments.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Maladie des animaux, Maladie transfrontière, Évaluation du risque, Migration animale, approches participatives, Surveillance épidémiologique, Maladie infectieuse, Transmission des maladies, Cartographie, Facteur de risque, Analyse du risque

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Tunisie

Mots-clés complémentaires : Maladie émergente

Mots-clés libres : Risk assessment, Risk mapping, Animal movement, Transboundary Emerging Diseases

Classification Agris : L73 - Animal diseases
B10 - Geography
U30 - Research methods

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 4 (2019-) - Santé des plantes, des animaux et des écosystèmes

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Squarzoni Diaw Cécile, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) - auteur correspondant
  • Arsevska Elena, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA)
  • Kalthoum Sana, CNVZ (TUN)
  • Hammami Pachka, Université de Montpellier (FRA)
  • Cherni Jamel, CNVZ (TUN)
  • Daoudi Assia, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (DZA)
  • Laoufi Mohamed Karim, Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Development (DZA)
  • Lezaar Yassir, ONSSA (MAR)
  • Kechna Rachid, ONSSA (MAR)
  • Seck Ismaïla, FAO (GHA)
  • Ould Elmamy Bezeid, ONARDEL (MRT)
  • Yahya Barry, ONARDEL (MRT)
  • Dufour Barbara, ENVA (FRA)
  • Hendrikx Pascal, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA)
  • Cardinale Eric, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (REU) ORCID: 0000-0002-3434-3541
  • Munoz Facundo, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-5061-4241
  • Lancelot Renaud, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA)
  • Coste Caroline, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (

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