Modeled interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones

Luo Yiqi, Gerten Dieter, Le Maire Guerric, Parton W.J., Weng Ensheng, Zhou Xuhui, Keough Cindy, Beier Claus, Ciais Philippe, Cramer Wolfgang, Dukes Jeffrey S., Emmett Bridget, Hanson P. J., Knapp Alan A. K., Linder Sune, Nepstad Dan, Rustad Lindsey. 2008. Modeled interactive effects of precipitation, temperature, and [CO2] on ecosystem carbon and water dynamics in different climatic zones. Global Change Biology, 14 (9) : pp. 1986-1999.

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Abstract : Interactive effects of multiple global change factors on ecosystem processes are complex. It is relatively expensive to explore those interactions in manipulative experiments. We conducted a modeling analysis to identify potentially important interactions and to stimulate hypothesis formulation for experimental research. Four models were used to quantify interactive effects of climate warming (T), altered precipitation amounts [doubled (DP) and halved (HP)] and seasonality (SP, moving precipitation in July and August to January and February to create summer drought), and elevated [CO2] (C) on net primary production (NPP), heterotrophic respiration (Rh), net ecosystem production (NEP), transpiration, and runoff. We examined those responses in seven ecosystems, including forests, grasslands, and heathlands in different climate zones. The modeling analysis showed that none of the three-way interactions among T, C, and altered precipitation was substantial for either carbon or water processes, nor consistent among the seven ecosystems. However, two-way interactive effects on NPP, Rh, and NEP were generally positive (i.e. amplification of one factor's effect by the other factor) between T and C or between T and DP. A negative interaction (i.e. depression of one factor's effect by the other factor) occurred for simulated NPP between T and HP. The interactive effects on runoff were positive between T and HP. Four pairs of two-way interactive effects on plant transpiration were positive and two pairs negative. In addition, wet sites generally had smaller relative changes in NPP, Rh, runoff, and transpiration but larger absolute changes in NEP than dry sites in response to the treatments. The modeling results suggest new hypotheses to be tested in multifactor global change experiments. Likewise, more experimental evidence is needed for the further improvement of ecosystem models in order to adequately simulate complex interactive processes. (Résumé d'auteur)

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Modélisation environnementale, Modèle de simulation, Changement climatique, Précipitation, Température, Carbone, eau, Écosystème, Zone climatique, Respiration, Ruissellement, Transpiration, Variation saisonnière, Facteur du milieu, Sécheresse, Productivité des terres

Classification Agris : P40 - Meteorology and climatology
F40 - Plant ecology

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 6 (2005-2013) - Agriculture, environnement, nature et sociétés

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Luo Yiqi, University of Oklahoma (USA)
  • Gerten Dieter, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DEU)
  • Le Maire Guerric, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR Ecosystèmes de plantations (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-5227-958X
  • Parton W.J., University of Colorado (USA)
  • Weng Ensheng, University of Oklahoma (USA)
  • Zhou Xuhui, University of Oklahoma (USA)
  • Keough Cindy, University of Colorado (USA)
  • Beier Claus, Technical University of Denmark (DNK)
  • Ciais Philippe, CNRS (FRA)
  • Cramer Wolfgang, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DEU)
  • Dukes Jeffrey S., University of Massachusetts (USA)
  • Emmett Bridget, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology (GBR)
  • Hanson P. J., Oak Ridge National Laboratory (USA)
  • Knapp Alan A. K., Colorado State University (USA)
  • Linder Sune, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SWE)
  • Nepstad Dan, WHRC (USA)
  • Rustad Lindsey, USDA (USA)

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