COSMOS, a spatially explicit model to simulate the epidemiology of Cosmopolites sordidus in banana fields

Vinatier Fabrice, Tixier Philippe, Le Page Christophe, Bruchou Claude, Duyck Pierre François, Lescourret Françoise. 2008. COSMOS, a spatially explicit model to simulate the epidemiology of Cosmopolites sordidus in banana fields. In : VIIème Conférence OILB sur la Production Fruitière Intégrée, 27-30 octobre 2008, Avignon, France. s.l. : s.n., Résumé, 1 p. Conférence OILB sur la Production Fruitière Intégrée. 7, Avignon, France, 27 Octobre 2008/30 Octobre 2008.

Matériel d'accompagnement : 1 poster

Résumé : In French West Indies, cyclones can cause severe damages to banana plants, and banana pests are thus confronted to a lack of resources. Here, we investigate with a spatial model the effect of a catastrophic disturbance, like a cyclone, on the demography and spatial dynamics of a population of banana weevil (Cosmopolites sordidus) in French West Indies. The individual-based model called COSMOS describes the epidemiology of C. sordidus in the field. Each biological parameter of the model was estimated from literature and experimental data. The model was validated at the micro-parcel scale, comparing using the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test observed and simulated distributions of attacks. 12 out of 18 micro-parcels were similar. An exhaustive sensitivity analysis, using the Morris method, allowed evaluating the importance of each parameter in the distribution of attacks. According to model simulations at the field scale, the time necessary for an entire collapse of populations following a shortage of resources is approximately one year, depending only on the mortality rate of adults. Spatial clustering of populations emerges from the model, because of successive grow-up and decline of population associated with limited dispersal capabilities. The model developed here helps us to understand the key factors of the epidemiology of a tropical pest and the dynamics resulting from a major disturbance.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Musa, Cosmopolites sordidus

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Antilles françaises, France

Classification Agris : H10 - Ravageurs des plantes
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Auteurs et affiliations

• Vinatier Fabrice, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR Systèmes bananes et ananas (MTQ)
• Tixier Philippe, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR Systèmes bananes et ananas (MTQ) ORCID: 0000-0001-5147-9777
• Le Page Christophe, CIRAD-ES-UPR GREEN (THA) ORCID: 0000-0002-1920-0091
• Bruchou Claude, INRA (FRA)
• Duyck Pierre François, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR Systèmes bananes et ananas (MTQ) ORCID: 0000-0001-5484-1970
• Lescourret Françoise, INRA (FRA)

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/548853/)

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