A method for estimating the distribution of species susceptible to foot-and-mouth disease in the Kruger National Park Region

Brahmbhatt Dipa P., Fosgate Geoffrey T., Gummow Bruce, Ward Michael P., Vosloo V., Jori Ferran, Budke Christine M., Srinivasan R., Highfield L.. 2007. A method for estimating the distribution of species susceptible to foot-and-mouth disease in the Kruger National Park Region. In : 7th Annual Conference of the Southern African Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine, Cape Town, 22-24 August 2007. s.l. : s.n., 101-108. Annual Conference of the Southern African Society for Veterinary Epidemiology and Preventive Medicine. 7, Cape Town, Afrique du Sud, 22 Août 2007/24 Août 2007.

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Résumé : Landscape distribution of susceptible species is needed to model the spatial spread of infectious diseases. Our objective is to develop 2 individual species animal count maps - for African buffalo and domestic cattle susceptible to foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) in the Kruger National Park Region (KNPR) of the Republic of South Africa (RSA) - using retrospective census and land use data. The KNPR includes the Kruger National Park, Limpopo and Mpumalanga provinces. We applied dasymetric mapping methods to disaggregate animal population census data to a finer resolution using ancillary data. In this study, ancillary data used to define species distributions included stocking rate or carrying capacity and land suitability parameters, A geographical information system (GIS) was used to identify suitable land and vegetation locations (x,y coordinates) for each species. Covariate-specific animal counts were modelled using a Poisson distribution. The resulting animal count data was mapped and will be used to model FMD spread within the KNPR.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : fièvre aphteuse, buffle africain, Bovidae

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Afrique du Sud

Mots-clés complémentaires : Connochaetes taurinus

Classification Agris : L50 - Physiologie et biochimie animales

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