Risk assessment scenarios to understand the persistence of Rift Valley fever in Comoros (Indian Ocean)

Etter Eric, Olive Marie-Marie, Roger Matthieu, Faharoudine Abdourahime, Halifa Mohamed, Cardinale Eric. 2012. Risk assessment scenarios to understand the persistence of Rift Valley fever in Comoros (Indian Ocean). In : 13th International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics : Book of abstracts. ISVEE. Wageningen : Wageningen Academic Publishers, Résumé, 345. International Symposium on Veterinary Epidemiology and Economics. 13, Maastricht, Pays-Bas, 20 Août 2012/24 Août 2012.

Résumé : Rift Valley Fever (RVF) is an arbozoonosis identified for the first time in Kenya in the 1930s. In 2000, the first apparition of the virus out of Africa was described in the Arabian Peninsula with both animal and human cases. Indian Ocean showed animal and human cases in 2008 in Madagascar where the disease was absent during 17 years while the same year the same year the first human case was diagnosed in Mayotte from a young Comorian. Lots of models described climate drivers of RVF outbreaks. These models failed to predict malagasy outbreaks. These recent spreads of the disease are likely to be also linked with animal movements. Forecasting outbreaks and managing rapid control of the disease request adapted and more flexible models. This study assessed two scenarios of risk in the Comoros Islands and compared the results with some surveillance data in order to determine the potential role of the introduction of an exogenous hazard. The first scenario explored the endemicity of the disease through insect-borne transmission and developed the probability for the disease to be spread throughout the island because of infectious mosquito bites. The second scenario developed a model with new legal introduction of cattle from Tanzania and subsequent contact and infection of bovines in Comoros (Grande Comores). A quantitative stochastic approach permitted to include variability as well as uncertainty in this quantitative risk assessment. Advanced analysis of the sensitivity of the models allowed to explore the most probable pathways of transmission and therefore to define thresholds to set priorities in the RVF surveillance and the control measures. (Texte intégral)

Classification Agris : L73 - Maladies des animaux
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Auteurs et affiliations

• Etter Eric, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (ZWE)
• Olive Marie-Marie, CRVOI (REU)
• Roger Matthieu, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR CMAEE (REU)
• Faharoudine Abdourahime, Ministère de l'agriculture, de la pêche, de l'environnement, de l'énergie, de l'industrie et de l'artisanat (Comores) (COM)
• Halifa Mohamed, Ministère de l'agriculture, de la pêche, de l'environnement, de l'énergie, de l'industrie et de l'artisanat (Comores) (COM)
• Cardinale Eric, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR CMAEE (REU) ORCID: 0000-0002-3434-3541

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/567775/)

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