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Climate variability and outbreaks of infectious diseases in Europe

Morand Serge, Owers Katharine, Waret-Szkuta Agnès, McIntyre K. Marie, Baylis Matthew. 2013. Climate variability and outbreaks of infectious diseases in Europe. Scientific Reports, 3 (1774), 6 p.

Journal article ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact Revue en libre accès total
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Quartile : Outlier, Sujet : MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Abstract : Several studies provide evidence of a link between vector-borne disease outbreaks and El Niño driven climate anomalies. Less investigated are the effects of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). Here, we test its impact on outbreak occurrences of 13 infectious diseases over Europe during the last fifty years, controlling for potential bias due to increased surveillance and detection. NAO variation statistically influenced the outbreak occurrence of eleven of the infectious diseases. Seven diseases were associated with winter NAO positive phases in northern Europe, and therefore with above-average temperatures and precipitation. Two diseases were associated with the summer or spring NAO negative phases in northern Europe, and therefore with below-average temperatures and precipitation. Two diseases were associated with summer positive or negative NAO phases in southern Mediterranean countries. These findings suggest that there is potential for developing early warning systems, based on climatic variation information, for improved outbreak control and management. (Résumé d'auteur)

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Surveillance épidémiologique, Maladie infectieuse, Maladie transmise par vecteur, Système d'alerte rapide, Facteur climatique, Tempête, Changement climatique, Maladie de l'homme, Maladie des animaux

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Europe

Classification Agris : L73 - Animal diseases
L70 - Veterinary science and hygiene - General aspects
P40 - Meteorology and climatology
000 - Other themes

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 4 (2005-2013) - Santé animale et maladies émergentes

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Morand Serge, CIRAD-ES-UPR AGIRs (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0003-3986-7659
  • Owers Katharine, ISEM (FRA)
  • Waret-Szkuta Agnès
  • McIntyre K. Marie, University of Liverpool (GBR)
  • Baylis Matthew, University of Liverpool (GBR)

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/569463/)

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