Vulnerability of baobab species to climate change and effectiveness of the protected area network in Madagascar: Towards new conservation priorities

Vieilledent Ghislain, Cornu Cyrille, Cuni Sanchez Aida, Leong Pock Tsy Jean-Michel, Danthu Pascal. 2013. Vulnerability of baobab species to climate change and effectiveness of the protected area network in Madagascar: Towards new conservation priorities. Biological Conservation, 166 : 11-22.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2013.06.007

Article de revue ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact

Version publiée - Anglais
Accès réservé aux personnels Cirad
Utilisation soumise à autorisation de l'auteur ou du Cirad.
document_570122.pdf
Télécharger (3MB)

Quartile : Q1, Sujet : ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : BIODIVERSITY CONSERVATION / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : ECOLOGY

Résumé : Baobab species are representative of the high biodiversity and endemism rates that place Madagascar in the top three of the countries with the highest biodiversity in the world. In this study, we estimated the vulnerability of three endangered Malagasy baobab species (Adansonia grandidieri Baill., Adansonia perrieri Capuron and Adansonia suarezensis H. Perrier) to climate change and the effectiveness of the protected area network (PAN) for the future conservation of these species. To estimate the environmental niche of the species, we used an original data-set based on satellite image analysis to detect species presence and an ensemble modelling approach using three species distribution models (GLM, GAM and MaxEnt). We projected the species distribution in 2050 and 2080 using an ensemble forecasting approach combining the three species distribution models and three global circulation models for climate projections. Measures of connectivity were employed to assess the present and future effectiveness of the existing PAN. Among the three baobab species studied, two are severely threatened by climate change (A. perrieri and A. suarezensis), in part because the present PAN does not overlap with future species distribution areas. Recently, strong efforts have been made in designing an optimised PAN to conserve Madagascar outstanding biodiversity. Nevertheless, its future effectiveness is questioned by the potential shifts in species distributions due to predicted changes in climate. In the context of climate change, alternative strategies such as ecological restoration would also have to be adopted to conserve biodiversity in Madagascar.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Adansonia, changement climatique, évaluation du risque, zone protégée, conservation des ressources, biodiversité, télédétection

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Madagascar

Classification Agris : F70 - Taxonomie végétale et phytogéographie
P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
U30 - Méthodes de recherche

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 6 (2005-2013) - Agriculture, environnement, nature et sociétés

Auteurs et affiliations