Identifying climatic drivers of tropical forest dynamics

Aubry-Kientz Mélaine, Rossi Vivien, Wagner Fabien, Hérault Bruno. 2015. Identifying climatic drivers of tropical forest dynamics. Biogeosciences, 12 (19) : 5583-5596.

https://doi.org/10.5194/bg-12-5583-2015

Article de revue ; Article de recherche ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact Revue en libre accès total

Prévisualisation

Version publiée - Anglais
Sous licence

.
bg-12-5583-2015.pdf
Télécharger (1MB) | Prévisualisation

Quartile : Q1, Sujet : GEOSCIENCES, MULTIDISCIPLINARY / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : ECOLOGY

Résumé : In the context of climate change, identifying and then predicting the impacts of climatic drivers on tropical forest dynamics is becoming a matter of urgency. To look at these climate impacts, we used a coupled model of tropical tree growth and mortality, calibrated with forest dynamic data from the 20-year study site of Paracou, French Guiana, in order to introduce and test a set of climatic variables. Three major climatic drivers were identified through the variable selection procedure: drought, water saturation and temperature. Drought decreased annual growth and mortality rates, high precipitation increased mortality rates and high temperature decreased growth. Interactions between key functional traits, stature and climatic variables were investigated, showing best resistance to drought for trees with high wood density and for trees with small current diameters. Our results highlighted strong long-term impacts of climate variables on tropical forest dynamics, suggesting potential deep impacts of climate changes during the next century.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : forêt tropicale, changement climatique, impact sur l'environnement, dynamique des populations, croissance, mortalité, modèle de simulation, modèle de croissance forestière, sécheresse, teneur en eau du sol, température