Interactions of mean climate change and climate variability on food security extremes. [P-2223-18]

Ruane Alex C., McDermid Sonali P., Mavromatis Theodoros, Hudson Nicholas I., Morales Monica D., Simmons John, Agalawatte Prabodha, Ahmad A., Ahmad Shakeel, Ahuja L., Anapalli Saseendran S., Anothai Jakarat, Asseng Senthold, Bellocchi Gianni, Dumont Benjamin, Bert Federico, Bertuzzi Patrick, Bhatia Virender S., Bindi Marco, Biggs Jody, Broad Ian, Byun-Wu Lee, Cammarano Davide, Carretero Ramiro, Chung Uran, De Sanctis Giacomo, Debats Stephanie, Dhliwayo Thanda, Estes Lyndon, Ewert Franck, Feng Liping, Ferrise Roberto, Gaiser Thomas, Garcia Guillermo, Gastal François, Gbegbelegbe Sika, Geethalakshmi Vellingiri, Gérardeaux Edward, Goldberg Richard, Grant Brian, Guevara Edgardo, Hickman Jonathan, Hoffmann Holger, Huang Huanping, Hussain Jamshad, Justino Flavio Barbosa, Karunaratne Asha S., Klumpp Katja, Koehler Ann-Kristin, Kouakou Patrice Koffi. 2015. Interactions of mean climate change and climate variability on food security extremes. [P-2223-18]. In : Our Common Future under Climate Change. International scientific conference Abstract Book 7-10 July 2015. Paris, France. CFCC15. Paris : CFCC15, pp. 321-322. Our Common Future under Climate Change, Paris, France, 7 July 2015/10 July 2015.

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Matériel d'accompagnement : 1 poster

Abstract : The Coordinated Climate-Crop Modeling Project (C3MP) has conducted a common set of sensitivity tests on more than 1100 simulation sets representing different farm systems in more than 50 countries, with carbon dioxide, temperature, and precipitation change sensitivities gauged for ~20 crop species and ~20 crop models. Here we present an analysis of C3MP results indicating how mean climate changes are likely to affect variability and extreme events within future time periods. Recognizing that climate change will affect agricultural systems both through mean changes and through shifts in climate variability and associated extreme events, C3MP can elucidate several aspects of these changes. First, mean climate changes can affect yields across an entire time period. Second, extreme events (when they do occur) may be more sensitive to climate changes than a year with normal climate. Third, mean climate changes can alter the likelihood of climate extremes exceeding critical biophysical thresholds, leading to more food security extremes. Finally, shifts in climate variability can result in an increase or reduction of mean yield, as extreme climate events tend to have lower yield than years with normal climate.This presentation will demonstrate each of these effects and illustrate the potential implications for future food production and associated agricultural economies under climate change.

Mots-clés libres : Climate change, Climate variability, Food security

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Ruane Alex C., NASA (USA)
  • McDermid Sonali P., University of New-York (USA)
  • Mavromatis Theodoros
  • Hudson Nicholas I., Columbia University (USA)
  • Morales Monica D., Columbia University (USA)
  • Simmons John
  • Agalawatte Prabodha, Foundation for Environment Climate and Technology (LKA)
  • Ahmad A.
  • Ahmad Shakeel, International Institute of Information Technology (PAK)
  • Ahuja L., University of Michigan (USA)
  • Anapalli Saseendran S., USDA (FRA)
  • Anothai Jakarat, Prince of Songkla University (THA)
  • Asseng Senthold, University of Florida (USA)
  • Bellocchi Gianni, ISCI (ITA)
  • Dumont Benjamin, Université de Liège (BEL)
  • Bert Federico, Universidad de Buenos Aires (ARG)
  • Bertuzzi Patrick, INRA (FRA)
  • Bhatia Virender S., NRCSo (IND)
  • Bindi Marco, University of Florence (ITA)
  • Biggs Jody, CSIRO (AUS)
  • Broad Ian, University of Queensland (AUS)
  • Byun-Wu Lee
  • Cammarano Davide, James Hutton Institute (GBR)
  • Carretero Ramiro, Universidad de Buenos Aires (ARG)
  • Chung Uran, CIMMYT (KEN)
  • De Sanctis Giacomo, European Commission Directorate General Joint Research Centre (ITA)
  • Debats Stephanie, Princeton University (USA)
  • Dhliwayo Thanda, CIMMYT (MEX)
  • Estes Lyndon, Princeton University (USA)
  • Ewert Franck, Wageningen University (NLD)
  • Feng Liping
  • Ferrise Roberto, University of Florence (ITA)
  • Gaiser Thomas, Universität Bonn (DEU)
  • Garcia Guillermo, Universidad de Buenos Aires (ARG)
  • Gastal François, INRA (FRA)
  • Gbegbelegbe Sika, CIMMYT (KEN)
  • Geethalakshmi Vellingiri, TNAU (IND)
  • Gérardeaux Edward, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (FRA)
  • Goldberg Richard, Columbia University (USA)
  • Grant Brian, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada (CAN)
  • Guevara Edgardo, INTA (ARG)
  • Hickman Jonathan, Columbia University (USA)
  • Hoffmann Holger, TNAU (IND)
  • Huang Huanping, CAAS (CHN)
  • Hussain Jamshad, UAF (PAK)
  • Justino Flavio Barbosa, Federal University of Viçosa (BRA)
  • Karunaratne Asha S., Sabaragamuwa University of Sri Lanka (LKA)
  • Klumpp Katja, INRA (FRA)
  • Koehler Ann-Kristin, University of Leeds (GBR)
  • Kouakou Patrice Koffi, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (BFA) ORCID: 0000-0003-3623-1452

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