Assessing the multi-pathway threat from an invasive agricultural pest: Tuta absoluta in Asia

McNitt Joseph, Chungbaek Young Yun, Mortveit Henning, Marathe Madhav, Campos Mateus R., Desneux Nicolas, Brévault Thierry, Muniappan Rangaswamy, Adiga Abhijin. 2019. Assessing the multi-pathway threat from an invasive agricultural pest: Tuta absoluta in Asia. Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences, 286 (1913):20191159, 9 p.

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Quartile : Q1, Sujet : BIOLOGY / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : ECOLOGY / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : EVOLUTIONARY BIOLOGY

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Psychologie-éthologie-ergonomie

Abstract : Modern food systems facilitate rapid dispersal of pests and pathogens through multiple pathways. The complexity of spread dynamics and data inadequacy make it challenging to model the phenomenon and also to prepare for emerging invasions. We present a generic framework to study the spatio-temporal spread of invasive species as a multi-scale propagation process over a time-varying network accounting for climate, biology, seasonal production, trade and demographic information. Machine learning techniques are used in a novel manner to capture model variability and analyse parameter sensitivity. We applied the framework to understand the spread of a devastating pest of tomato, Tuta absoluta, in South and Southeast Asia, a region at the frontier of its current range. Analysis with respect to historical invasion records suggests that even with modest self-mediated spread capabilities, the pest can quickly expand its range through domestic city-to-city vegetable trade. Our models forecast that within 5–7 years, Tuta absoluta will invade all major vegetable growing areas of mainland Southeast Asia assuming unmitigated spread. Monitoring high-consumption areas can help in early detection, and targeted interventions at major production areas can effectively reduce the rate of spread.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Tuta absoluta, Ravageur des plantes, Espèce envahissante, Insecte nuisible, Solanum lycopersicum, Transmission des maladies, Modèle dynamique

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Asie

Mots-clés libres : Human mediated spread, Spread model, Epidemic network models, Agent-based modelling, Insect pests, Biological invasion

Classification Agris : H10 - Pests of plants

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 4 (2019-) - Santé des plantes, des animaux et des écosystèmes

Auteurs et affiliations

  • McNitt Joseph, Epic Systems Corporation (USA)
  • Chungbaek Young Yun, University of Virginia (USA)
  • Mortveit Henning, University of Virginia (USA)
  • Marathe Madhav, University of Virginia (USA)
  • Campos Mateus R., INRA (FRA)
  • Desneux Nicolas, INRA (FRA)
  • Brévault Thierry, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (SEN) ORCID: 0000-0003-0159-3509
  • Muniappan Rangaswamy, Feed the Future Integrated Pest Management Innovation Laboratory (USA)
  • Adiga Abhijin, University of Virginia (USA) - auteur correspondant

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (

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