Chaos theory applied to the outbreak of COVID-19: An ancillary approach to decision making in pandemic context

Mangiarotti Sylvain, Peyre Marie-Isabelle, Zhang Y., Huc Mireille, Roger François, Kerr Yann. 2020. Chaos theory applied to the outbreak of COVID-19: An ancillary approach to decision making in pandemic context. Epidemiology and Infection, 148:e95, 9 p.

Journal article ; Article de recherche ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact Revue en libre accès total
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Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Psychologie-éthologie-ergonomie

Abstract : While predicting the course of an epidemic is difficult, predicting the course of a pandemic from an emerging virus is even more so. The validity of most predictive models relies on numerous parameters, involving biological and social characteristics often unknown or highly uncertain. Data of the COVID-19 epidemics in China, Japan, South Korea and Italy were used to build up deterministic models without strong assumptions. These models were then applied to other countries to identify the closest scenarios in order to foresee their coming behaviour. The models enabled to predict situations that were confirmed little by little, proving that these tools can be efficient and useful for decision making in a quickly evolving operational context.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Épidémiologie, Prise de décision, Coronavirinae, Contrôle de maladies, Maladie infectieuse, technique de prévision, COVID-19, pandémie

Mots-clés complémentaires : Modélisation mathématique

Mots-clés libres : COVID-19, Modelling, Chaos Theory, Epidemiology, Coronavirus, Epidemics, Infectious disease control, Mathematical modelling, Pandemic

Classification Agris : U10 - Computer science, mathematics and statistics
L73 - Animal diseases

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 4 (2019-) - Santé des plantes, des animaux et des écosystèmes

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Mangiarotti Sylvain, IRD (FRA) - auteur correspondant
  • Peyre Marie-Isabelle, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-0887-3418
  • Zhang Y., CESBIO (FRA)
  • Huc Mireille, CNRS (FRA)
  • Roger François, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR ASTRE (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-1573-6833
  • Kerr Yann, CESBIO (FRA)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (

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