Naulleau Audrey, Gary Christian, Prévot Laurent, Berteloot Victor, Fabre Jean-Christophe, Crevoisier David, Gaudin Rémi, Hossard Laure. 2022. Participatory modeling to assess the impacts of climate change in a Mediterranean vineyard watershed. Environmental Modelling and Software, 150:105342, 14 p.
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Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui
Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture
Résumé : The diversity of both pedoclimatic and socio-economic contexts in agricultural landscapes makes evaluating the impacts of climate change a challenge. Models are pertinent tools to quantitatively explore possible futures, and participatory approaches help account for local diversity. We developed a model through an approach that involves stakeholders in the model's construction and testing and in the discussion of results. We simulated spatially explicit impacts of climate change on water balance, grape phenology, and yield in a Mediterranean vineyard watershed for two climate scenarios. Results show a decrease in grape production of 7–14% by 2100. Yield decrease would be higher in irrigated high-yield areas despite a doubling of irrigation water supply. A forecasted 6 °C increase in temperature during berry ripening would threaten wine quality. The approach allows the communication of model results and limitations to stakeholders. It is a promising means of identifying potential local adaptations to climate change.
Mots-clés Agrovoc : changement climatique, modélisation environnementale, rendement des cultures, évaluation de l'impact, vignoble, adaptation aux changements climatiques, bassin versant
Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : France, Languedoc-Roussillon
Mots-clés libres : Climate Change, Grapevine, Landscape, Multi-scale evaluation, Spatially explicit model, Stakeholders
Classification Agris : P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques
F01 - Culture des plantes
Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 6 (2019-) - Changement climatique
Agences de financement hors UE : Institut National de Recherche pour l'Agriculture, l'Alimentation et l'Environnement, Région Occitanie Pyrénées-Méditerranée
Auteurs et affiliations
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Naulleau Audrey, CIRAD-ES-UMR INNOVATION (FRA)
ORCID: 0000-0003-4248-7833 - auteur correspondant
- Gary Christian, INRAE (FRA)
- Prévot Laurent, INRAE (FRA)
- Berteloot Victor, Université de Montpellier (FRA)
- Fabre Jean-Christophe, Université de Montpellier (FRA)
- Crevoisier David, INRAE (FRA)
- Gaudin Rémi, Université de Montpellier (FRA)
- Hossard Laure, INRAE (FRA)
Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/600688/)
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