Dynamic simulation of land-use changes in a periurban agricultural system

Anwar Sk Morshed, Borne Frédéric. 2005. Dynamic simulation of land-use changes in a periurban agricultural system. In : Companion modeling and multi-agent systems for integrated natural resource management in Asia. Bousquet François (ed.), Trébuil Guy (ed.), Hardy Bill (ed.). CIRAD, IRRI. Metro Manila : IRRI, 237-253. ISBN 971-22-0208-9

Résumé : Studying the driving forces of land-use change dynamics (LUCD) is important for understanding the change process. A spatially explicit simulation model helps to test hypotheses about landscape evolution under several scenarios. This paper presents a dynamic simulation model of land-use change (LUC) of the Nong Chok area in Central Thailand. Simulation of LUCD has been performed integrating remote sensing, geographic information systems (GIS), and the dynamic simulation toolkit. The model is a cellular automata model that has been developed on the basis of selected spatial and human driving forces. This study was conceived for the simulation of LUC, in particular, from paddy fields to fishponds. The model was run for 19 years from 1981 to 2000. Data describing present and historic land-use patterns were derived from aerial photographs. Transition functions were developed using the ID3 algorithm of the LUC data sets. The model uses as its input a land-use map (1981) and spatial and human variables: distance to canal and age, ownership, religion, education, and family size of the farmers. The results of the simulation showed substantial ability of the model to diffuse fishponds. To validate this spatial simulation model of LUCD, the simulated maps were compared with the reference land-use maps using a set of landscape indices: number of fishpond cells, patch density, mean patch size, edge density, fractal dimension, and mean nearest neighborhood.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : utilisation des terres, changement social, système d'information géographique, agriculture périurbaine, modèle de simulation, modélisation

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Thaïlande

Classification Agris : U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques
E11 - Économie et politique foncières
B10 - Géographie

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 6 (2005-2013) - Agriculture, environnement, nature et sociétés

Auteurs et affiliations

• Anwar Sk Morshed, University of Montreal (CAN)
• Borne Frédéric, CIRAD-AMIS-UMR AMAP (THA) ORCID: 0000-0003-3251-8253

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/530533/)

Métriques

[ Page générée et mise en cache le 2024-01-28 ]