Dynamics of a salinity-prone agricultural catchment driven by markets, farmers' attitude and climate change

Asseng S., Dray Anne, Perez Pascal, Su X., Müller Jean Pierre. 2007. Dynamics of a salinity-prone agricultural catchment driven by markets, farmers' attitude and climate change. In : Land, water and environmental mangaement: Integrated systems for sustainability: proceedings of MODSIM 2007 International congress on modelling and simulation, Christchurch, New Zealand, December 12-13, 2007. Oxley, L. ; Kulasiri, D.(eds). Brisbane : MSSANZ, 32-38. ISBN 978-0-9758400-4-7 International Congress on Modelling and Simulation, Christchurch, Nouvelle-Zélande, 10 Décembre 2007/13 Décembre 2007.

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Résumé : An agent-based simulation model has been developed with CORMAS combining simplified bio-physical processes of land cover, dry-land salinity changes, rainfall, farm profitability and farmer decisions on land uses in a dry-land agricultural catchment (no irrigation). Simulated farmers formulate individual decisions dealing with land use changes based on the combined performance of their past land cover productivity and market returns. The willingness to adapt to market drivers and the ability to maximize returns varies across farmers. In addition, farmers in the model can demonstrate various attitudes towards salinity mitigation as a consequence of experiencing and perceiving salinity on their farm, in the neighborhood or in the entire region. Consequently, farmers can adopt land cover strategies aiming at reducing salinity impact. The simulation results using historical rainfall records reproduces similar trends of crop-pasture ratios, salinity change and farm decline as observed in the last 20 years in the Katanning catchment (Western Australia). Using the model as an explorative tool for future scenarios, the simulation results highlighted the importance of rainfall changes and wide-spread willingness of farmers to combat dry-land salinity. Rainfall changes as a consequence of climate change can lead to prolonged sequences of dry and wet seasons. Adaptation to these sequences by farmers seems to be critical for farm survival in this catchment.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : modèle de simulation, simulation, salinité du sol, utilisation des terres, facteur climatique, facteur du milieu, marché, adaptation de la production, agriculture, changement climatique

Mots-clés complémentaires : Système multiagents

Classification Agris : U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques
F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie

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