Commodities in a global vision for agriculture towards 2010

Habib Robert, Nicolas Dominique, Jacquemard Jean-Charles, Omont Hubert. 2007. Commodities in a global vision for agriculture towards 2010. In : Proceedings 2007 conference on plantation commodities "visionnary agriculture: malaysian commodity crops in 100 years", Kuala Lumpur, Malaisia, 3-4 july 2007. MPIC, Malaysia; Malaysian Cocoa Board. Kuala Lumpur : s.n., 2-20. 2007 Conference on plantation commodities, Kuala Lumpur, Malaisie, 3 Juillet 2007/4 Juillet 2007.

Résumé : It is impossible to see a hundred years into the future. So, how can we imagine what will become of commodity crops in Malaysia by 2100? Yet, worldwide, these commodity crops provide a living for hundreds of millions of people: how they evolve will have considerable economic, social and environmental consequences for many countries. It is therefore worth trying to steer that future rather than submitting to it. We adopted a three-stage approach to launch our deliberations on possible futures: an historical approach, an analysis of the current context, and hypotheses on possible developments. The historical approach draws lessons from a study of commodity crops up to the 20th century, taking the example of the cotton and palm oil sectors. The analysis of the current context brings out variables that are important for understanding the current situation and whose evolution could play a decisive role in future changes. Lastly, we propose imagining the future from three angles: the first, a trend hypothesis, prolongs the current major trends, with progressive and constructed changes; the second, a disaster hypothesis, describes certain key variables that are subject to sudden and imposed disruptions, and which could have serious repercussions for commodity crops; the third hypothesis is a positive fiction scenario applied to the palm oil sector, with severe but controlled and constructed breaks with trends. The conclusion draws lessons and identifies the limitations of the exercise, and proposes avenues for further deliberation. In order to construct the desired changes and keep abreast of foreseeable developments, it is essential beforehand to carry out a fine analysis of the variables of the context, their interrelations, and mechanisms for monitoring what becomes of them. Such an analysis requires the active participation of stakeholders in the sectors and players in the global context, some of whom have already undertaken foresight exercises: initially, it would be worth bringing together their results with a view to a true international foresight study.

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Malaisie

Classification Agris : E16 - Économie de la production
F01 - Culture des plantes

Auteurs et affiliations

• Habib Robert, CIRAD-PERSYST-DIR (FRA)
• Nicolas Dominique, CIRAD-PERSYST-UMR SYSTEM (FRA)
• Jacquemard Jean-Charles, CIRAD-BIOS-UPR Génétique palmier (IDN)
• Omont Hubert, CIRAD-DS (FRA)

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/546116/)

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