Roudier Philippe, Sultan B., Quirion P., Baron Christian, Alhassane Agali, Traoré Seydou B., Muller Bertrand. 2012. An ex-ante evaluation of the use of seasonal climate forecasts for millet growers in SW Niger. International Journal of Climatology, 32 (5) : 759-771.
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Quartile : Q1, Sujet : METEOROLOGY & ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCES
Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui
Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture
Résumé : This work assesses the value of climate forecasts for millet growers in Niger. We quantify the potential value of three kinds of categorical forecasts assigning cumulated rainfall during the forthcoming rainy season by tercile (dry, normal, or humid): (i) a realistic imperfect tercile forecast; (ii) a perfect tercile forecast; and (iii) a perfect tercile forecast which includes a prediction of rainy season onset and offset dates. Eighteen management strategies are assessed. Corresponding yields are computed using the SARRA-H crop model then converted into utility by taking into account risk-aversion. Simulations over an historical 18-year period 1990-2007 show that benefit is lowest with imperfect tercile forecasts (+6.9%), higher (+11%) with perfect tercile forecasts, and reaches +31% when enhanced adaptation strategies and additional climatic indices are available. These results show that improving existing forecast systems by including the prediction of onset and cessation of rainfall is of great value.
Mots-clés Agrovoc : modélisation des cultures, Cenchrus americanus, rendement des cultures, gestion du risque, précipitation, prévision météorologique, changement climatique
Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Niger
Classification Agris : U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques
F01 - Culture des plantes
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 1 (2005-2013) - Intensification écologique
Auteurs et affiliations
- Roudier Philippe, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA)
- Sultan B., CNRS (FRA)
- Quirion P., CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA)
- Baron Christian, CIRAD-ES-UMR TETIS (FRA)
- Alhassane Agali, AGRHYMET (NER)
- Traoré Seydou B., AGRHYMET (NER)
- Muller Bertrand, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR AGAP (SEN)
Autres liens de la publication
Source : Cirad - Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/564079/)
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