Toward trait-based mortality models for tropical forests

Aubry-Kientz Mélaine, Hérault Bruno, Ayotte-Trépanier Charles, Baraloto Christopher, Rossi Vivien. 2013. Toward trait-based mortality models for tropical forests. PloS One, 8 (5):e63678, 10 p.

Journal article ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact Revue en libre accès total
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Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Psychologie-éthologie-ergonomie; Staps

Abstract : Tree mortality in tropical forests is a complex ecological process for which modelling approaches need to be improved to better understand, and then predict, the evolution of tree mortality in response to global change. The mortality model introduced here computes an individual probability of dying for each tree in a community. The mortality model uses the ontogenetic stage of the tree because youngest and oldest trees are more likely to die. Functional traits are integrated as proxies of the ecological strategies of the trees to permit generalization among all species in the community. Data used to parametrize the model were collected at Paracou study site, a tropical rain forest in French Guiana, where 20,408 trees have been censused for 18 years. A Bayesian framework was used to select useful covariates and to estimate the model parameters. This framework was developed to deal with sources of uncertainty, including the complexity of the mortality process itself and the field data, especially historical data for which taxonomic determinations were uncertain. Uncertainty about the functional traits was also considered, to maximize the information they contain. Four functional traits were strong predictors of tree mortality: wood density, maximum height, laminar toughness and stem and branch orientation, which together distinguished the light-demanding, fast-growing trees from slow-growing trees with lower mortality rates. Our modelling approach formalizes a complex ecological problem and offers a relevant mathematical framework for tropical ecologists to process similar uncertain data at the community level. (Résumé d'auteur)

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Forêt tropicale humide, Arbre forestier, Changement climatique, Écologie forestière, Mortalité, Modèle mathématique, Modèle de simulation, Densité, Hauteur, Port de la plante

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Guyane française

Classification Agris : U10 - Computer science, mathematics and statistics
K01 - Forestry - General aspects
P40 - Meteorology and climatology
F40 - Plant ecology

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 6 (2005-2013) - Agriculture, environnement, nature et sociétés

Auteurs et affiliations

  • Aubry-Kientz Mélaine, CIRAD-ES-UMR Ecofog (GUF)
  • Hérault Bruno, CIRAD-ES-UMR Ecofog (GUF) ORCID: 0000-0002-6950-7286
  • Ayotte-Trépanier Charles, CIRAD-ES-UMR Ecofog (GUF)
  • Baraloto Christopher, INRA (GUF)
  • Rossi Vivien, CIRAD-ES-UMR Ecofog (GUF) ORCID: 0000-0001-5458-1523

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (

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