The Nexus Land-Use model, approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use

Souty François, Brunelle Thierry, Dumas Patrice, Dorin Bruno, Ciais Philippe, Crassous Renaud, Müller Christoph, Bondeau Alberte. 2012. The Nexus Land-Use model, approach articulating biophysical potentials and economic dynamics to model competition for land-use. In : 19th Annual Conference of European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists (EAERE), 27-30 June 2012, Prague, République Tchèque. s.l. : s.n., 1-40. Annual Conference of the European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists. 19, Prague, République tchèque, 27 Juin 2013/30 Juin 2013.

Résumé : Interactions between food demand, biomass energy and forest preservation are driving both food prices and land-use changes. This study presents a new model called Nexus Land-Use which describes these interactions through a representation of agricultural intensification. The model combine biophysics and economics to calculate crop yields, food prices, and resulting pasture and cropland areas within 12 inter-connected regions. The representation of cropland production systems relies on a biomass production function derived from the crop yield response function to inputs and a spatially explicit distribution of potential crop yields prescribed from the Lund-Postdam-Jena global vegetation model for managed Land (LPJmL). The economic principles governing decisions about land-use and intensification are adapted from the Ricardian rent theory, assuming cost minimisation. The land-use modelling approach described in this paper makes it possible to explore interactions among different types of demand for biomass, including indirect effects on land-use change resulting from international trade. Yield variations induced by the possible expansion of croplands on less suitable lands are modelled by using regional land area distributions of potential yields, and a boundary between intensive and extensive production. Idealized scenarios exploring the impact of forest preservation policies or rising energy price on agricultural intensification are presented.

Classification Agris : U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques
E11 - Économie et politique foncières
E14 - Économie et politique du développement

Auteurs et affiliations

• Souty François, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA)
• Brunelle Thierry, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0001-5350-8332
• Dumas Patrice, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-3896-7589
• Dorin Bruno, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-8738-8057
• Ciais Philippe, CNRS (FRA)
• Crassous Renaud, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA)
• Müller Christoph, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DEU)
• Bondeau Alberte, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (DEU)

Source : Cirad - Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/571176/)

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