A spatial agent-based model for assessing strategies of adaptation to climate and tourism demand changes in an alpine tourism destination

Balbi Stefano, Giupponi Carlo, Perez Pascal, Alberti Marco. 2013. A spatial agent-based model for assessing strategies of adaptation to climate and tourism demand changes in an alpine tourism destination. Environmental Modelling and Software, 45 : 29-51.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2012.10.004

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Quartile : Outlier, Sujet : COMPUTER SCIENCE, INTERDISCIPLINARY APPLICATIONS / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : ENGINEERING, ENVIRONMENTAL

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture

Résumé : A vast body of literature suggests that the European Alpine Region is amongst the most sensitive socioecosystems to climate change impacts. Our model represents the winter tourism socio-ecosystem of Auronzo di Cadore, located in the Dolomites (Italy), which economic and environmental conditions are highly vulnerable to climate variations. This agent-based model includes eight types of agents corresponding to different winter tourist profiles based on their socio-economic background and activity targets. The model is calibrated with empirical data while results are authenticated through direct interaction of local stakeholders with the model. The model is then used for assessing three hypothetical and contrasted infrastructure-oriented adaptation strategies for the winter tourism industry, that have been previously discussed with local stakeholders, as possible alternatives to the "business-as-usual" situation. These strategies are tested against multiple future scenarios that include: (a) future weather conditions in terms of snow cover and temperature, (b) the future composition and total number of tourists and (c) the type of market competition. A set of socio-economic indicators, which are strongly coupled with relevant environmental consequences, are considered in order to draw conclusions on the robustness of the selected strategies.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : tourisme, sport, changement climatique, adaptation, modélisation environnementale, modèle de simulation, contrôle continu, environnement socioéconomique, adaptation aux changements climatiques

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Italie, Alpes

Mots-clés complémentaires : Système multiagents

Classification Agris : P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
000 - Autres thèmes
E14 - Économie et politique du développement
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Champ stratégique Cirad : Hors axes (2005-2013)

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