Vietnam's forest transition in retrospect: Demonstrating weaknesses in business-as-usual scenarios for REDD+

Ankersen Jeppe, Grogan Kenneth, Mertz Ole, Fensholt Rasmus, Castella Jean-Christophe, Lestrelin Guillaume, Nguyen Dinh Tien, Danielsen Finn, Brofeldt Soren, Rasmussen Kjeld. 2015. Vietnam's forest transition in retrospect: Demonstrating weaknesses in business-as-usual scenarios for REDD+. Environmental Management, 55 (5) : 1080-1092.

Quartile : Q2, Sujet : ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture

Résumé : One of the prerequisites of the REDD+ mechanism is to effectively predict business-as-usual (BAU) scenarios for change in forest cover. This would enable estimation of how much carbon emission a project could potentially prevent and thus how much carbon credit should be rewarded. However, different factors like forest degradation and the lack of linearity in forest cover transitions challenge the accuracy of such scenarios. Here we predict and validate such BAU scenarios retrospectively based on forest cover changes at village and district level in North Central Vietnam. With the government's efforts to increase the forest cover, land use policies led to gradual abandonment of shifting cultivation since the 1990s. We analyzed Landsat images from 1973, 1989, 1998, 2000, and 2011 and found that the policies in the areas studied did lead to increased forest cover after a long period of decline, but that this increase could mainly be attributed to an increase in open forest and shrub areas. We compared Landsat classifications with participatory maps of land cover/use in 1998 and 2012 that indicated more forest degradation than was captured by the Landsat analysis. The BAU scenarios were heavily dependent on which years were chosen for the reference period. This suggests that hypothetical REDD+ activities in the past, when based on the remote sensing data available at that time, would have been unable to correctly estimate changes in carbon stocks and thus produce relevant BAU scenarios.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : forêt, forêt tropicale, déboisement, couverture végétale, utilisation des terres, réduction des émissions, services écosystémiques, reconstitution forestière, politique forestière

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Viet Nam

Classification Agris : K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales
K70 - Dégâts causés aux forêts et leur protection
E11 - Économie et politique foncières

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 6 (2014-2018) - Sociétés, natures et territoires

Agences de financement européennes : European Commission

Programme de financement européen : FP7

Projets sur financement : (EU) Impacts of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and Enhancing Carbon Stocks

Auteurs et affiliations

• Ankersen Jeppe, UCPH (DNK)
• Grogan Kenneth, UCPH (DNK)
• Mertz Ole, UCPH (DNK)
• Fensholt Rasmus, UCPH (DNK)
• Castella Jean-Christophe, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (LAO) ORCID: 0000-0003-3532-0728
• Lestrelin Guillaume, IRD (LAO) ORCID: 0000-0001-6207-218X
• Nguyen Dinh Tien, RUDEC (VNM)
• Danielsen Finn, NORDECO (DNK)
• Brofeldt Soren, NORDECO (DNK)
• Rasmussen Kjeld, UCPH (DNK)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/584319/)

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