Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change

Imbach Pablo, Fung Emily, Hannah Lee, Navarro-Racines Carlos E., Roubik David, Ricketts Taylor H., Harvey Celia A., Donatti Camila I., Läderach Peter, Locatelli Bruno, Roehrdanz Patrick R.. 2017. Coupling of pollination services and coffee suitability under climate change. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 114 (39) : 10438-10442.

Url - jeu de données - Entrepôt autre : https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/9DY3GE

Quartile : Outlier, Sujet : MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Economie-gestion; Psychologie-éthologie-ergonomie

Résumé : Climate change will cause geographic range shifts for pollinators and major crops, with global implications for food security and rural livelihoods. However, little is known about the potential for coupled impacts of climate change on pollinators and crops. Coffee production exemplifies this issue, because large losses in areas suitable for coffee production have been projected due to climate change and because coffee production is dependent on bee pollination. We modeled the potential distributions of coffee and coffee pollinators under current and future climates in Latin America to understand whether future coffee-suitable areas will also be suitable for pollinators. Our results suggest that coffee-suitable areas will be reduced 73–88% by 2050 across warming scenarios, a decline 46–76% greater than estimated by global assessments. Mean bee richness will decline 8–18% within future coffee-suitable areas, but all are predicted to contain at least 5 bee species, and 46–59% of future coffee-suitable areas will contain 10 or more species. In our models, coffee suitability and bee richness each increase (i.e., positive coupling) in 10–22% of future coffee-suitable areas. Diminished coffee suitability and bee richness (i.e., negative coupling), however, occur in 34–51% of other areas. Finally, in 31–33% of the future coffee distribution areas, bee richness decreases and coffee suitability increases. Assessing coupled effects of climate change on crop suitability and pollination can help target appropriate management practices, including forest conservation, shade adjustment, crop rotation, or status quo, in different regions.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : Coffea, production, changement climatique, adaptation aux changements climatiques, pollinisateur, biodiversité, impact sur l'environnement, Apidae, protection de la forêt

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Amérique latine

Classification Agris : P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
F08 - Systèmes et modes de culture
F40 - Écologie végétale
P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières
K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 1 (2014-2018) - Agriculture écologiquement intensive

Auteurs et affiliations

• Imbach Pablo, CATIE (CRI)
• Fung Emily, CATIE (CRI)
• Hannah Lee, Conservation International (USA)
• Navarro-Racines Carlos E., CIAT (VNM)
• Roubik David, Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute (PAN)
• Ricketts Taylor H., University of Vermont (USA)
• Harvey Celia A., Conservation International (USA)
• Donatti Camila I., Conservation International (USA)
• Läderach Peter, CIAT (COL)
• Locatelli Bruno, CIRAD-ES-UPR BSef (PER) ORCID: 0000-0003-2983-1644
• Roehrdanz Patrick R., Conservation International (USA)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/585385/)

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