Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+

Mertz Ole, Grogan Kenneth, Pflugmacher Dirk, Lestrelin Guillaume, Castella Jean-Christophe, Vongvisouk Thoumthone, Hett Cornelia, Fensholt Rasmus, Sun Zhanli, Berry Nicholas J., Müller Daniel. 2018. Uncertainty in establishing forest reference levels and predicting future forest-based carbon stocks for REDD+. Journal of Land Use Science, 13 (1-2) : 1-15.

Quartile : Q1, Sujet : AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Résumé : Forest reference levels (FRLs) provide a benchmark for assessing reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation (REDD+), and they are central to demonstrate additionality of REDD+. Attaining realistic FRLs, however, is challenging, especially in complex mosaic landscapes. We established FRLs in northern Laos for different reference periods and tested them against actual carbon stock changes. Annual time series of Landsat satellite images were used to capture the subtle changes in carbon stocks in complex landscapes characterized by shifting cultivation. We found that FRLs differ considerably depending on the reference period chosen. Abrupt land-use changes occurred when hybrid maize replaced traditional shifting cultivation and forests, and this invalidated carbon stock trends that would have been predicted had the FRL been projected into the future. We conclude that demonstrating additionality of REDD+ in fast developing areas is difficult and that payment systems rewarding potential emission reductions against hypothetical extrapolation of FRLs are unlikely to be a cost-effective strategy.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : forêt, forêt tropicale humide, déboisement, culture itinérante, cycle du carbone, séquestration du carbone, services écosystémiques, montant compensatoire, financement, protection de la forêt, Landsat, imagerie, cartographie de l'occupation du sol, cartographie des fonctions de la forêt, paysage

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : République démocratique populaire lao

Classification Agris : K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales
P33 - Chimie et physique du sol
P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 6 (2014-2018) - Sociétés, natures et territoires

Agences de financement européennes : European Commission

Programme de financement européen : FP7

Projets sur financement : (EU) Impacts of Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation and Enhancing Carbon Stocks

Auteurs et affiliations

• Mertz Ole, UCPH (DNK) - auteur correspondant
• Grogan Kenneth, UCPH (DNK)
• Pflugmacher Dirk, Humboldt Universität zu Berlin (DEU)
• Lestrelin Guillaume, CIRAD-ES-UMR TETIS (TUN) ORCID: 0000-0001-6207-218X
• Castella Jean-Christophe, CIRAD-PERSYST-UPR AIDA (LAO) ORCID: 0000-0003-3532-0728
• Vongvisouk Thoumthone, National University of Laos (LAO)
• Hett Cornelia, University of Bern (CHE)
• Fensholt Rasmus, UCPH (DNK)
• Sun Zhanli, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (DEU)
• Berry Nicholas J., University of Edinburgh (GBR)
• Müller Daniel, Leibniz Institute of Agricultural Development in Central and Eastern Europe (DEU)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/586382/)

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