Impacts of natural disasters on a dynamic economy

Groth Andreas, Dumas Patrice, Ghil Michael, Hallegatte Stéphane. 2016. Impacts of natural disasters on a dynamic economy. In : Extreme events: observations, modeling, and economics. Chavez Mario (ed.), Ghil Michael (ed.), Urrutia-Fucugauchi Jaime (ed.). Chichester : Wiley, 343-359. (Geophysical Monograph Series, 214) ISBN 978-1119-15701-4

Résumé : This paper presents a modeling framework for macroeconomic growth dynamics; it is motivated by recent attempts to formulate and study \integrated models" of the coupling between natural and socio-economic phenomena. The challenge is to describe the interfaces between human activities and the functioning of the earth system. We examine the way that this interface works in the presence of endogenous business cycle dynamics, based on a non-equilibrium dynamic model. Recent findings about the macroeconomic response to natural disasters in such a non-equilibrium setting have shown a more severe response to natural disasters during expansions than during recessions. These findings raise questions about the assessment of climate change damages or natural disaster losses that are based purely on long-term growth models. In order to compare the theoretical findings with observational data, we analyze cyclic behavior in the U.S. economy, based on multivariate singular spectrum analysis. We analyze a total of nine aggregate indicators in a 52-year interval (1954{2005) and demonstrate that the behavior of the U.S. economy changes significantly between intervals of growth and recession, with higher volatility during expansions.

Classification Agris : E10 - Économie et politique agricoles
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
000 - Autres thèmes

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 6 (2014-2018) - Sociétés, natures et territoires

Auteurs et affiliations

• Groth Andreas, ENS (FRA)
• Dumas Patrice, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-3896-7589
• Ghil Michael, ENS (FRA)
• Hallegatte Stéphane, CIRAD-ES-UMR CIRED (FRA)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/586760/)

Métriques

[ Page générée et mise en cache le 2024-12-03 ]