Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0°C on West African cereal yields

Faye Babacar, Webber Heidi, Naab Jesse B., MacCarthy Dilys Sefakor, Adam Myriam, Ewert Franck, Lamers John P.A., Schleussner Carl-Friedrich, Ruane Alex C., Gessner Ursula, Hoogenboom Gerrit, Boote Ken, Shelia Vakhtang, Saeed Fahad, Wisser Dominik, Hadir Sofia, Laux Patrick, Gaiser Thomas. 2018. Impacts of 1.5 versus 2.0°C on West African cereal yields. In : Abstracts of the 7th AgMIP Global Workshop. IICA. San José : IICA, Résumé, 26-27. AgMIP Global Workshop. 7, San José, Costa Rica, 24 Avril 2018/26 Avril 2018.

Résumé : With the Paris Agreement, governments around the world agreed to limit global temperature rise to less than 2.0°C above pre-industrial levels, with the ambition to keep warming to 1.5°C. Designing appropriate mitigation responses requires weighing costs of mitigating versus associated damages for the two levels of warming, with particular consideration of the implications for regions already challenged by food insecurity. This study assessed impacts in the West African Sudan Savanna of 1.5°C versus 2.0°C on yields of maize, pearl millet and sorghum. Two crop models were used that were calibrated with common varieties from experiments in the region. To capture a range of realistic management, early, typical and late sowing was assessed. Further, simulations were conducted for both current fertilizer rates and for an intensification case which assumed fertility not limiting, in attempt to capture the extremes of possible economic development scenarios on current cropping systems. With current fertilizer use, results indicated 2% units higher losses for maize and sorghum with 2.0°C compared to 1.5°C warming, with no change in millet yields for either scenario. In the intensification case, yield losses due to climate change were larger than with current fertilizer levels. However, despite the larger losses, yields were always 2-3 times higher with intensification, irrespective of the warming scenario. Though yield variability increased with intensification, there was no interaction with warming scenario. Risk and market analysis are needed to extend these results to understand implications for food security.

Auteurs et affiliations

• Faye Babacar, Universität Bonn (DEU)
• Webber Heidi, Universität Bonn (DEU)
• Naab Jesse B., WASCAL (BFA)
• MacCarthy Dilys Sefakor, University of Ghana (GHA)
• Adam Myriam, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR AGAP (BFA) ORCID: 0000-0002-8873-6762
• Ewert Franck, Universität Bonn (DEU)
• Lamers John P.A., Universität Bonn (DEU)
• Schleussner Carl-Friedrich, CSC (DEU)
• Ruane Alex C., NASA (USA)
• Gessner Ursula, German Remote Sensing Data Center (DEU)
• Hoogenboom Gerrit, University of Florida (USA)
• Boote Ken, University of Florida (USA)
• Shelia Vakhtang, University of Florida (USA)
• Saeed Fahad, King Abdulaziz University (SAU)
• Wisser Dominik, FAO (ITA)
• Hadir Sofia, Universität Bonn (DEU)
• Laux Patrick, Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (DEU)
• Gaiser Thomas, Universität Bonn (DEU)

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/587809/)

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