A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia

Fournié Guillaume, Waret-Szkuta Agnès, Camacho Anton, Yigezu Laike M., Pfeiffer Dirk, Roger François. 2018. A dynamic model of transmission and elimination of peste des petits ruminants in Ethiopia. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 201711646, 6 p.

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1711646115

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Quartile : Outlier, Sujet : MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Economie-gestion; Psychologie-éthologie-ergonomie

Résumé : Peste des petits ruminants (PPR), a devastating viral disease of sheep and goats, has been targeted by the global community for eradication within the next 15 years. Although an efficacious attenuated live vaccine is available, the lack of knowledge about the transmission potential of PPR virus (PPRV) may compromise eradication efforts. By fitting a metapopulation model simulating PPRV spread to the results of a nationwide serological survey in Ethiopia, we estimated the level of viral transmission in an endemic setting and the vaccination coverage required for elimination. Results suggest that the pastoral production system as a whole acts as a viral reservoir, from which PPRV spills over into the sedentary production system, where viral persistence is uncertain. Estimated levels of PPRV transmission indicate that viral spread could be prevented if the proportion of immune small ruminants is kept permanently above 37% in at least 71% of pastoral village populations. However, due to the high turnover of these populations, maintaining the fraction of immune animals above this threshold would require high vaccine coverage within villages, and vaccination campaigns to be conducted annually. Adapting vaccination strategies to the specific characteristics of the local epidemiological context and small ruminant population dynamics would result in optimized allocation of limited resources and increase the likelihood of PPR eradication.

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Éthiopie

Mots-clés libres : Peste des petits ruminants, Eradication, Elimination, Mathematical model, Vaccination, Control

Classification Agris : L73 - Maladies des animaux
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Champ stratégique Cirad : Axe 4 (2014-2018) - Santé des animaux et des plantes

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