LittoSIM : une simulation interactive pour expérimenter des stratégies alternatives de prévention du risque de submersion marine

Becu Nicolas, Amalric Marion, Anselme Brice, Beck Elise, Bergossi Perrine, Bertin Xavier, Delay Etienne, Marilleau Nicolas, Pignon-Mussaud Cécilia, Long Nathalie, Rieu Guillaume, Rousseaux Frédéric. 2019. LittoSIM : une simulation interactive pour expérimenter des stratégies alternatives de prévention du risque de submersion marine. . Shom, MTES. Paris : Shom, Diaporama, 1 diaporama (20 vues) Journées REFMAR. 3, Paris, 27 Mars 2019/29 Mars 2019.

Autre titre : Participatory simulations with decision-makers on coastal flooding prevention: what did they learn?

Matériel d'accompagnement : 1 résumé

Résumé : Marine submersion is a major issue in coastal zones, which is becoming increasingly important with the global changes at work today (sea level rise, extreme climatic events, population increase in coastal areas...). In France, this issue was particularly publicized at the time of the Xynthia storm in 2010 which caused a large submersion (47 dead, 1 million homes deprived of electricity, 1.53 meter de surcote at La Rochelle). This event prompted an acceleration of coastal protection policies through the planning of a number of preventive measures. It also demonstrated a lack of risk culture by local officials and managers (technicians) in charge of risk prevention at the municipality level (in France, coastal risk prevention is managed at the municipal and inter-municipal level). A participatory simulation tool was specifically developed in 2005 and 2006, to foster social learning with municipalities' officials and managers, on the different possible prevention measures and help them built an integrated strategy at the inter-municipal level. The simulation tool and the setting of the participatory workshops held with this tool, are described in a previous paper (Becu et al. 2017). In short, the main design aspect of this participatory simulation is that participants teams, have to choose between different prevention measures, or actions (e.g. build, raise, dismantle dikes, modify the land use plan, relocate vulnerable housings, create higher residential densities or adapt housing equipment to flooding), according to their budget, their risk exposure, the lead time and the arrangements with the other teams. Submersion events occur fortuitously during the simulation, simulating the extent of flooding depending on previous players' actions, and players take note of the results and then seek to improve their prevention strategy. The debriefing is on the evolution of teams' prevention strategies throughout the simulation. To that end, their actions during the simulation are recorded and classified according into three main prevention strategies: “hard” coastal protection through dikes, “soft” coastal protection through natural restoration and flood adapted equipment, and managed realignment. In 2017, four participatory simulation workshops were conducted with municipalities' officials and managers of Oleron Island, a territory which was particularly impacted by Xynthia flooding. 33 persons participated, 18 were officials (including 5 of the 8 mayors of Oléron Island) and 15 were managers (among which 5 were department heads and 10 were technicians). We conducted an evaluation on social learning and on participants' opinion about strengths and weaknesses of the different prevention strategies. The evaluation method included observation and discourse analysis of the workshops' discussions, as well as ex-ante and ex-post questionnaires and interviews. Acquired knowledge are on marine submersion hazard, prevention measures and collective action process which validates our learning objectives. Participants learned much more about prevention measures under the “soft” coastal protection strategy, compared to other prevention strategies. A main topic of discussion during debriefing was on the opportunity to shift from the actual dominant “hard” coastal protection strategy to other types of strategies. Before the workshops, participants had a balanced opinion about “hard” coastal protection, but after, one third perceived more weaknesses than strengths. Simultaneously, their opinion about managed realignment shifted from disfavor to rather nuanced, and all participants were mostly in favor of “soft” prevention measures. However, they all agree that inter-municipal level is the right scale to have a truly integrated risk prevention strategy and to be able to operate this paradigm shift.

Mots-clés libres : Simulation interactive, ComMod, Submersion marine, Simulation participative

Auteurs et affiliations

• Becu Nicolas, Université de La Rochelle (FRA)
• Amalric Marion
• Anselme Brice
• Beck Elise
• Bergossi Perrine
• Bertin Xavier
• Delay Etienne, CIRAD-ES-UPR GREEN (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0001-6633-6269
• Marilleau Nicolas
• Pignon-Mussaud Cécilia
• Long Nathalie
• Rieu Guillaume
• Rousseaux Frédéric

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/591830/)

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