Application of exponential random graph models to determine nomadic herders' movements in Senegal

Belkhiria Jaber, Lo Modou Moustapha, Sow Fafa, Martínez-López Beatriz, Chevalier Véronique. 2019. Application of exponential random graph models to determine nomadic herders' movements in Senegal. Transboundary and Emerging Diseases, 66 (4) : 1642-1652.

https://doi.org/10.1111/tbed.13198

Article de revue ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact

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Quartile : Outlier, Sujet : VETERINARY SCIENCES / Quartile : Q1, Sujet : INFECTIOUS DISEASES

Résumé : Understanding human and animal mobility patterns is a key to predict local and global disease spread. We analysed the nomad herds' movement network in a pilot area of northern Senegal and used exponential random graph models (ERGM) to investigate the reasons behind these movements. We interviewed 132 nomadic herders to collect information about nomad herd structures, movements, and reasons for taking specific routes or gathering in certain areas. We constructed a spatially explicit network with villages as the nodes and nomad herds' movements as the connecting edges. The final ERGM showed that node and edge attributes such as presence of cattle in the herd (odds ratio = 12, CI: 5.3, 27.3), morbidity (odds ratio = 3.6, CI: 2.3, 5.7), and lack of water (odds ratio = 2, CI: 1.3, 3.1) were important predictors of nomad herds' movements. This study not only provides valuable information for monitoring important livestock diseases such as Rift Valley Fever in Senegal, but also helps implement outreach, education, and intervention programs for other emerging and endemic diseases affecting nomadic herds.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : nomadisme, mouvement, troupeau domestique, maladie des animaux, modèle mathématique, cartographie, fièvre de la Vallée du Rift

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Sénégal

Classification Agris : L73 - Maladies des animaux
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques
L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 5 (2019-) - Territoires

Agences de financement européennes : European Commission

Programme de financement européen : FP7

Projets sur financement : (EU) Emerging viral vector borne diseases

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