Spatial determinants and future land use scenarios of Paragominas municipality, an old agricultural frontier in Amazonia

Osis Reinis, Laurent François, Poccard-Chapuis René. 2019. Spatial determinants and future land use scenarios of Paragominas municipality, an old agricultural frontier in Amazonia. Journal of Land Use Science, 14 (3) : 258-279.

https://doi.org/10.1080/1747423X.2019.1643422

Article de revue ; Article de recherche ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact

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Quartile : Q2, Sujet : AGRICULTURE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Résumé : This paper analyzes the role of the main spatial determinants of land use dynamics and simulates past and future scenarios of land use in Paragominas, an old agricultural frontier in Amazonia. Deforestation rates have been reduced since 2007–2008 but soybean cropping and tree plantations are currently undergoing intense expansion. During this transition period, deforestation has shifted from areas close to paved roads to more distant areas and to small farms. Soybean and tree plantations expanded away from paved roads. Soybean crop distribution has a marked influence on the the agricultural potential of the land. Future scenario simulations indicate a loss of almost half of the municipality's forests by 2030 if pre-2007–2008 transition rates are considered. Zero deforestation scenarios show competition between pastureland and cropland, especially on the fertile plateaus. These results highlight the changes in spatial rules and the role of natural factors in an old agricultural frontier.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : aménagement du territoire, utilisation de terre forestière, extension forestière, soja, pâturages, réhabilitation des forêts, gestion des ressources naturelles, route

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Amazonie, Brésil, Para

Classification Agris : K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales
P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières
A01 - Agriculture - Considérations générales

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 5 (2019-) - Territoires

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