Unveiling African rainforest composition and vulnerability to global change

Rejou-Mechain Maxime, Mortier Frédéric, Bastin Jean-François, Cornu Guillaume, Barbier Nicolas, Bayol Nicolas, Bénédet Fabrice, Bry Xavier, Dauby Gilles, Deblauwe Vincent, Doucet Jean-Louis, Doumenge Charles, Fayolle Adeline, Garcia Claude, Kibambe Lubamba Jean-Paul, Loumeto Jean-Joël, Ngomanda Alfred, Ploton Pierre, Sonké Bonaventure, Trottier Catherine, Vimal Ruppert, Yongo Olga Diane, Pélissier Raphaël, Gourlet-Fleury Sylvie. 2021. Unveiling African rainforest composition and vulnerability to global change. Nature, 593:7857 : 90-94.

Url - jeu de données - Dataverse Cirad : https://doi.org/10.18167/DVN1/UCNCA7

Quartile : Outlier, Sujet : MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Economie-gestion; Psychologie-éthologie-ergonomie

Résumé : Africa is forecasted to experience large and rapid climate change and population growth during the twenty-first century, which threatens the world's second largest rainforest. Protecting and sustainably managing these African forests requires an increased understanding of their compositional heterogeneity, the environmental drivers of forest composition and their vulnerability to ongoing changes. Here, using a very large dataset of 6 million trees in more than 180,000 field plots, we jointly model the distribution in abundance of the most dominant tree taxa in central Africa, and produce continuous maps of the floristic and functional composition of central African forests. Our results show that the uncertainty in taxon-specific distributions averages out at the community level, and reveal highly deterministic assemblages. We uncover contrasting floristic and functional compositions across climates, soil types and anthropogenic gradients, with functional convergence among types of forest that are floristically dissimilar. Combining these spatial predictions with scenarios of climatic and anthropogenic global change suggests a high vulnerability of the northern and southern forest margins, the Atlantic forests and most forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where both climate and anthropogenic threats are expected to increase sharply by 2085. These results constitute key quantitative benchmarks for scientists and policymakers to shape transnational conservation and management strategies that aim to provide a sustainable future for central African forests.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : conservation des forêts, forêt tropicale humide, protection de la forêt, changement climatique, vulnérabilité, type forestier (composition botanique), distribution des populations, distribution géographique

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Afrique centrale

Mots-clés libres : African rainforests, Climate change impacts, Functional ecology, Joint species models, Tropical forest ecology

Classification Agris : P01 - Conservation de la nature et ressources foncières
K01 - Foresterie - Considérations générales
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 1 (2019-) - Biodiversité

Auteurs et affiliations

• Rejou-Mechain Maxime, IRD (FRA) - auteur correspondant
• Mortier Frédéric, CIRAD-ES-UPR Forêts et sociétés (FRA)
• Bastin Jean-François, IRD (FRA)
• Cornu Guillaume, CIRAD-ES-UPR Forêts et sociétés (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-7523-5176
• Barbier Nicolas, IRD (FRA)
• Bayol Nicolas, FRM ingénierie (FRA)
• Bénédet Fabrice, CIRAD-ES-UPR Forêts et sociétés (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0001-9281-5677
• Bry Xavier, UM2 (FRA)
• Dauby Gilles, IRD (FRA)
• Deblauwe Vincent, UC (USA)
• Doucet Jean-Louis, AgroParisTech (BEL)
• Doumenge Charles, CIRAD-ES-UPR Forêts et sociétés (FRA)
• Fayolle Adeline, AgroParisTech (BEL)
• Garcia Claude, CIRAD-ES-UPR Forêts et sociétés (CHE) ORCID: 0000-0002-7351-0226
• Kibambe Lubamba Jean-Paul, University of Kinshasa (COD)
• Loumeto Jean-Joël, UMNG (COG)
• Ngomanda Alfred, IRET (GAB)
• Ploton Pierre, IRD (FRA)
• Sonké Bonaventure, Université de Yaoundé (CMR)
• Trottier Catherine, UM2 (FRA)
• Vimal Ruppert, Université Paul Valéry (FRA)
• Yongo Olga Diane, Université de Bangui (CAF)
• Pélissier Raphaël, IRD (FRA)
• Gourlet-Fleury Sylvie, CIRAD-ES-UPR Forêts et sociétés (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-1136-4307

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/598556/)

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