Dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction number

Benkimoun Samuel, Atyame Célestine M., Haramboure Marion, Degenne Pascal, Thébault Hélène, Dehecq Jean-Sébastien, Tran Annelise. 2021. Dynamic mapping of dengue basic reproduction number. Results in Physics, 29:104687, 8 p.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rinp.2021.104687

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Url - jeu de données - Dataverse Cirad : https://doi.org/10.18167/DVN1/XF2I3L

Quartile : Q2, Sujet : MATERIALS SCIENCE, MULTIDISCIPLINARY / Quartile : Q2, Sujet : PHYSICS, MULTIDISCIPLINARY

Résumé : We developed a method to produce time-varying maps for dengue transmission risk, using the Ross-Macdonald framework and differential equations to estimate spatially the basic reproduction number (R0) of a vector-borne disease. The components of the R0 formula were derived partly from a mosquito population dynamics model integrating meteorological and environmental variables, and partly from temperature-dependent functions of vector competence and the extrinsic incubation period. The method was applied on Reunion Island, a tropical island located in the Indian Ocean, where the mosquito Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus has been responsible for large and numerous outbreaks of dengue. As a validation, predicted maps and dynamic outputs were compared with the distribution of confirmed dengue cases registered during the year 2018 in Reunion Island. The results highlight strong agreements between the observed epidemiological patterns and predicted R0 distribution and temporal dynamics. This finding demonstrates the relevance and efficiency of the spatialised basic reproduction number (R0) to develop an operational dynamic mapping tool for dengue surveillance and control. The resulting method could be of great use in a health policy-making context, providing a time and space awareness to the dengue risk perception.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : épidémiologie, maladie transmise par vecteur, analyse spatiale, cartographie, dynamique des populations, Aedes albopictus, distribution des populations

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : La Réunion, France

Mots-clés complémentaires : Virus de la dengue

Mots-clés libres : Dengue, Vector-borne disease, Basic reproduction number, Public health

Classification Agris : S50 - Santé humaine
U10 - Informatique, mathématiques et statistiques

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 4 (2019-) - Santé des plantes, des animaux et des écosystèmes

Agences de financement européennes : European Commission

Programme de financement européen : H2020

Projets sur financement : (EU) Revolutionizing Insect Control

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