Estimation of Rift Valley fever virus spillover to humans during the Mayotte 2018–2019 epidemic

Metras Raphaëlle, Edmunds John W., Youssouffi Chouanibou, Dommergues Laure, Fournié Guillaume, Camacho Anton, Funk Sebastian, Cardinale Eric, Le Godais Gilles, Combo Soihibou, Filleul Laurent, Youssouf Hassani, Subiros Marion. 2020. Estimation of Rift Valley fever virus spillover to humans during the Mayotte 2018–2019 epidemic. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 117 (39) : 24567-24574.

https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2004468117

Article de revue ; Article de recherche ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact

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Quartile : Outlier, Sujet : MULTIDISCIPLINARY SCIENCES

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Economie-gestion; Psychologie-éthologie-ergonomie

Résumé : Rift Valley fever (RVF) is an emerging, zoonotic, arboviral hemorrhagic fever threatening livestock and humans mainly in Africa. RVF is of global concern, having expanded its geographical range over the last decades. The impact of control measures on epidemic dynamics using empirical data has not been assessed. Here, we fitted a mathematical model to seroprevalence livestock and human RVF case data from the 2018–2019 epidemic in Mayotte to estimate viral transmission among livestock, and spillover from livestock to humans through both direct contact and vector-mediated routes. Model simulations were used to assess the impact of vaccination on reducing the epidemic size. The rate of spillover by direct contact was about twice as high as vector transmission. Assuming 30% of the population were farmers, each transmission route contributed to 45% and 55% of the number of human infections, respectively. Reactive vaccination immunizing 20% of the livestock population reduced the number of human cases by 30%. Vaccinating 1 mo later required using 50% more vaccine doses for a similar reduction. Vaccinating only farmers required 10 times as more vaccine doses for a similar reduction in human cases. Finally, with 52.0% (95% credible interval [CrI] [42.9–59.4]) of livestock immune at the end of the epidemic wave, viral reemergence in the next rainy season (2019–2020) is unlikely. Coordinated human and animal health surveillance, and timely livestock vaccination appear to be key to controlling RVF in this setting. We furthermore demonstrate the value of a One Health quantitative approach to surveillance and control of zoonotic infectious diseases.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : épidémiologie, santé publique, Virus de la fièvre de la vallée du Rift, fièvre de la Vallée du Rift, surveillance épidémiologique, zoonose, contrôle de maladies, modèle de simulation, vaccination

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Mayotte, France

Mots-clés complémentaires : One Health

Mots-clés libres : Rift Valley fever, Modeling, Epidemics, Spillover, One Health

Classification Agris : S50 - Santé humaine
L73 - Maladies des animaux

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 4 (2019-) - Santé des plantes, des animaux et des écosystèmes

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