Rice: a market largely dominated by India

Mendez Del Villar Patricio. 2022. Rice: a market largely dominated by India. In : Cyclope 2022: World commodities market. Raw materials, currencies, services, agriculture, energy, finance, industry, commodities. "The world of yesterday". Chalmin Philippe (ed.), Jégourel Yves (ed.). Paris : Cercle Cyclope, 176-181. (Cyclope, 36) ISBN 978-2-36985-191-2

Résumé : The year 2021 was marked by the hegemony of India, whose rice exports reached over 21 million tonnes (Mt), an absolute record representing 42% of world trade. This was the highest level of performance since 1930, when Burma exported 2.9 Mt, equivalent to 40% of world trade at the time. Vietnam and Thailand, respectively the world's second and third largest exporters, are almost like minnows, with exports of between 6 and 6.5 Mt, although this is up from 2020. World trade has seen a stronger than expected recovery of 12.5%, despite the disruption caused by the health situation and the increase in the cost of sea freight, which has increased fivefold in the space of a few months. The use of bulk maritime transport nevertheless made it possible to limit these increases. Similarly, lower export prices and reduced margins for importers have helped to mitigate soaring transport costs. Purchases from China and Bangladesh, back on the import market, were the driving force behind the recovery in rice trade, up 15.5% to 51.2 Mt, exceeding the 10% threshold of world production for the first time. African demand was also particularly active, rising by 8% compared to 2020, especially in Nigeria, which had to reopen its land borders at the end of 2020 after a period of strict controls to combat smuggling. The strong growth in trade in 2021, without an increase in world prices, was made possible by very abundant exportable supplies and fierce competition between Asian exporters. World prices thus remained on a downward trend throughout most of 2021, falling by an average of 17% between January and December, cancelling out the increases seen in 2020 at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic and returning to their December 2019 level by the end of 2021. In 2022, world trade is expected to increase again, but more moderately, by 5% to 53 Mt. Asian demand is expected to remain strong. However, the epicentre of trade will once again be the African continent, whose imports could increase by 15% and represent almost 40% of world imports at 20 Mt, i.e., 45% of domestic rice consumption.

Mots-clés libres : Rice, World markets

Auteurs et affiliations

• Mendez Del Villar Patricio, CIRAD-ES-UMR TETIS (FRA) ORCID: 0000-0002-3963-7565

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/601673/)

Métriques

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