Can global models provide insights into regional mitigation strategies? A diagnostic model comparison study of bioenergy in Brazil

Köberle Alexandre C., Daioglou Vassilis, Rochedo Pedro, Lucena André F. P., Szklo Alexandre, Fujimori Shinichiro, Brunelle Thierry, Kato Etsushi, Kitous Alban, Van Vuuren Detlef P., Schaeffer Roberto. 2022. Can global models provide insights into regional mitigation strategies? A diagnostic model comparison study of bioenergy in Brazil. Climatic Change, 170:2, 31 p.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-021-03236-4

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Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Economie-gestion; Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture

Résumé : The usefulness of global integrated assessment model (IAM) results for policy recommendation in specific regions has not been fully assessed to date. This study presents the variation in results across models for a given region, and what might be behind this variation and how model assumptions and structures drive results. Understanding what drives the differences across model results is important for national policy relevance of global scenarios. We focus on the use of bioenergy in Brazil, a country expected to play an important role in future bioenergy production. We use results of the Stanford University Energy Modeling Forum's 33rd Study (EMF-33) model comparison exercise to compare and assess projections of Brazil's bioenergy pathways under climate mitigation scenarios to explore how 10 global IAMs compare to recent trends in the country. We find that, in their current form, global IAMs have limited potential to supply robust insights into regional mitigation strategies. Our results suggest fertile ground for a new research agenda to improve regional representation in global IAMs with improved spatial and technological resolutions.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : bioénergie, utilisation des terres, déboisement, production énergétique, impact sur l'environnement, réduction des émissions, changement climatique, biocarburant, atténuation des effets du changement climatique, biomasse

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Brésil

Mots-clés libres : Integrated assessment models, Global models, Regional mitigation strategies

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 5 (2019-) - Territoires

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