Predicting the effects of climate change on dengue vector densities in southeastasia through process-based modeling

Bonnin Lucas, Tran Annelise, Herbreteau Vincent, Marcombe Sébastien, Boyer Sébastien, Mangeas Morgan, Menkes Christophe. 2022. Predicting the effects of climate change on dengue vector densities in southeastasia through process-based modeling. Environmental Health Perspectives, 130 (12), 13 p.

https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP11068

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Url - jeu de données - Entrepôt autre : https://doi.org/10.23708/NYX0NV

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Economie-gestion; Psychologie-éthologie-ergonomie

Résumé : Background: Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus mosquitoes are major vectors for several human diseases of global importance, such as dengue and yellow fever. Their life cycles and hosted arboviruses are climate sensitive and thus expected to be impacted by climate change. Most studies investigating climate change impacts on Aedes at global or continental scales focused on their future global distribution changes, whereas a single study focused on its effects on Ae. aegypti densities regionally. Objectives: A process-based approach was used to model densities of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus and their potential evolution with climate change using a panel of nine CMIP6 climate models and climate scenarios ranging from strong to low mitigation measures at the Southeast Asian scale and for the next 80 y. Methods: The process-based model described, through a system of ordinary differential equations, the variations of mosquito densities in 10 compartments, corresponding to 10 different stages of mosquito life cycle, in response to temperature and precipitation variations. Local field data were used to validate model outputs. Results: We show that both species densities will globally increase due to future temperature increases. In Southeast Asia by the end of the century, Ae. aegypti densities are expected to increase from 25% with climate mitigation measures to 46% without; Ae. albopictus densities are expected to increase from 13%–21%, respectively. However, we find spatially contrasted responses at the seasonal scales with a significant decrease in Ae. albopictus densities in lowlands during summer in the future.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : vecteur de maladie, dynamique des populations, changement climatique, Aedes aegypti, Aedes albopictus

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Myanmar, République démocratique populaire lao, Thaïlande, Cambodge, Viet Nam

Mots-clés complémentaires : Virus de la dengue

Mots-clés libres : Climate Change, Aedes, Mosquito, Modelling, Dengue

Classification Agris : L72 - Organismes nuisibles des animaux
P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
S50 - Santé humaine

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 4 (2019-) - Santé des plantes, des animaux et des écosystèmes

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