Spatial spread of infectious diseases with conditional vector preferences

Hamelin Frédéric, Hilker Frank M., Dumont Yves. 2023. Spatial spread of infectious diseases with conditional vector preferences. . CIRM. Marseille : CIRM, p. 34. Conference Mathematical Population Dynamics, Ecology and Evolution (MPDEE 2023), Marseille, France, 24 Avril 2023/28 Avril 2023.

Résumé : We explore the spatial spread of vector-borne infections with conditional vector preferences, meaning that vectors do not visit hosts at random. Vectors may be differentially attracted toward infected and uninfected hosts depending on whether they carry the pathogen or not. The model is expressed as a system of partial differential equations with vector diffusion. We first study the diffusion-less model. We show that conditional vector preferences alone (in the absence of any epidemiological feedback on their population dynamics) may result in bistability between the disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. A backward bifurcation may allow the disease to persist even though its basic reproductive number is less than one. Bistability can occur only if both infected and uninfected vectors prefer uninfected hosts. Back to the model with diffusion, we show that bistability in the local dynamics may generate travelling waves with either positive or negative spreading speeds, meaning that the disease either invades or retreats into space. In the monostable case, we show that the disease spreading speed depends on the preference of uninfected vectors for infected hosts but not on the preference of infected vectors for uninfected hosts. We discuss the implications of our results for vector-borne plant diseases, which are the main source of evidence for conditional vector preferences so far.

Mots-clés libres : Partial differential equations, Traveling wave solution, Monostable traveling wave, Bistable traveling wave, Vector preference, Backward bifurcation, Front reversal, Monotone system

Agences de financement hors UE : Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique

Projets sur financement : (FRA) Modélisation et Covid-19

Auteurs et affiliations

• Hamelin Frédéric, INRAE (FRA)
• Hilker Frank M., Osnabruck University (DEU)
• Dumont Yves, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR AMAP (REU) ORCID: 0000-0003-4817-685X

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/604770/)

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