Food and electricity self-sufficiency trade-offs in Reunion Island: Modelling land-use change scenarios with stakeholders

Russeil Valentin, Lo Seen Danny, Broust François, Bonin Muriel, Praene Jean-Philippe. 2023. Food and electricity self-sufficiency trade-offs in Reunion Island: Modelling land-use change scenarios with stakeholders. Land Use Policy, 132:106784, 13 p.

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2023.106784

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Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture

Résumé : Reunion Island, a French overseas region in the Indian Ocean, has endorsed policies targeting food and electricity self-sufficiency. This objective implies balancing different land-uses (food, feed, bioelectricity, urbanisation, etc.) which we explore in a set of scenarios towards 2035. Through participatory structural analysis, we modelled drivers of change as processes using Ocelet, a spatially explicit and dynamic modelling platform. We built a detailed land-use map for our initial state and calibrated relevant processes through four scenarios ranging from “business-as-usual” to “implementation of ambitious territory planning policies”. To improve local self-sufficiency, our results support the need for large-scale land planning policies, suggesting partial sugarcane conversion into food crops, urbanisation control, farmlands expansion onto fallows and photovoltaic increase. Our context-specific approach addresses food and electricity self-sufficiency as a whole and understands its inner dynamic and spatial processes from stakeholders' viewpoint. Moreover, our model recognizes small-scale spatial heterogeneity and contributes to mediate controversial issues related to territory foresight and land-use planning.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : approche participative, aménagement du territoire, autosuffisance, forêt tropicale humide, bioélectricité, diversification, cartographie de l'utilisation des terres, modèle de simulation, politique alimentaire, dynamique des populations, électricité, utilisation des terres, cartographie des fonctions de la forêt