Spatial spread of infectious diseases with conditional vector preferences

Hamelin Frédéric, Hilker Frank M., Dumont Yves. 2023. Spatial spread of infectious diseases with conditional vector preferences. Journal of Mathematical Biology, 87:23, 32 p.

Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Psychologie-éthologie-ergonomie

Résumé : We explore the spatial spread of vector-borne infections with conditional vector preferences, meaning that vectors do not visit hosts at random. Vectors may be differentially attracted toward infected and uninfected hosts depending on whether they carry the pathogen or not. The model is expressed as a system of partial differential equations with vector diffusion. We first study the non-spatial model. We show that conditional vector preferences alone (in the absence of any epidemiological feedback on their population dynamics) may result in bistability between the disease-free equilibrium and an endemic equilibrium. A backward bifurcation may allow the disease to persist even though its basic reproductive number is less than one. Bistability can occur only if both infected and uninfected vectors prefer uninfected hosts. Back to the model with diffusion, we show that bistability in the local dynamics may generate travelling waves with either positive or negative spreading speeds, meaning that the disease either invades or retreats into space. In the monostable case, we show that the disease spreading speed depends on the preference of uninfected vectors for infected hosts, but also on the preference of infected vectors for uninfected hosts under some circumstances (when the spreading speed is not linearly determined). We discuss the implications of our results for vector-borne plant diseases, which are the main source of evidence for conditional vector preferences so far.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : épidémiologie, maladie infectieuse, vecteur de maladie, analyse spatiale, modélisation

Mots-clés libres : Vector bias, Bistability, Backward bifurcation, Travelling wave, Spreading speed, Front reversal, Pulled and pushed waves

Classification Agris : H20 - Maladies des plantes

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 4 (2019-) - Santé des plantes, des animaux et des écosystèmes

Agences de financement européennes : European Agricultural Fund for Rural Development

Agences de financement hors UE : Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Conseil Régional de La Réunion, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement

Projets sur financement : (FRA) Modélisation et Covid-19

Auteurs et affiliations

• Hamelin Frédéric, INRAE (FRA) - auteur correspondant
• Hilker Frank M., Osnabruck University (DEU)
• Dumont Yves, CIRAD-BIOS-UMR AMAP (REU) ORCID: 0000-0003-4817-685X

Source : Cirad-Agritrop (https://agritrop.cirad.fr/605841/)

Métriques

[ Page générée et mise en cache le 2024-04-23 ]