Impacts of climate change on regional cattle trade in the central corridor of Africa

Amin Ariane, Wane Abdrahmane, Koné Inza, Krah Michel, N'Goran Adjoua Ange-Jokébed. 2023. Impacts of climate change on regional cattle trade in the central corridor of Africa. Regional Environmental Change, 23 (1):35, 12 p.

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10113-022-02017-8

Article de revue ; Article de recherche ; Article de revue à facteur d'impact

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Liste HCERES des revues (en SHS) : oui

Thème(s) HCERES des revues (en SHS) : Géographie-Aménagement-Urbanisme-Architecture

Résumé : The impacts of climate change on agricultural systems in West Africa have been analyzed extensively. However, few studies have focused on livestock systems. Using export data for the period 1996–2017 and climate data for two major cattle suppliers (Mali and Burkina Faso) and one net importer (Côte d'Ivoire) in West Africa, we estimated a gravity model of temperature and cattle trade. Our study provides findings on the impacts of climate change on cattle supply. Indeed, we found that climate shocks in some major Sahel cattle-exporting countries, i.e., Mali and Burkina Faso, can affect the supply of a coastal import country, such as Côte d'Ivoire. Specifically, the study supports findings that a temperature increase in the Sudanian region of the Sahel induces a significant decrease in cattle trade flows. We found, as an example, that a 0.3 °C global increase in temperature could decrease cattle trade flow by 25%, which could happen to exports in 10 years from 2020 in the moderate climate change scenario (RCP 4.5), and in 06 years in the pessimistic scenario (RCP 8.5) at horizon 2050. There is a 67% and 80% chance, respectively, that this will happen, based on the climate change scenario. Our results are of great interest to cattle systems because they partly demonstrate the result of inaction in the face of climate change in that economic sector. In fact, if nothing is set up, significant disruption to cattle trade flow from Sahelian countries, which is projected to occur in the near future, could weaken regional economic integration in addition to raising the risk of food insecurity.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : changement climatique, système d'élevage, évaluation de l'impact, impact économique, production de bétail, économie agricole, commerce agricole

Mots-clés géographiques Agrovoc : Mali, Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire

Mots-clés libres : Climate impacts, Economic impacts, Livestock economy, Gravity model

Classification Agris : P40 - Météorologie et climatologie
E70 - Commerce, commercialisation et distribution
L01 - Élevage - Considérations générales

Champ stratégique Cirad : CTS 6 (2019-) - Changement climatique

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