Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study

Vesga Juan F., Clark Madeleine H.A., Ayazi Edris, Apolloni Andrea, Leslie Toby, Edmunds John W., Métras Raphaëlle. 2022. Transmission dynamics and vaccination strategies for Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus in Afghanistan: A modelling study. PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases, 16 (5):e0010454, 17 p.

https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pntd.0010454

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Résumé : Crimean-Congo haemorrhagic fever virus (CCHF) is an understudied emerging pathogen and the cause of increasingly frequent outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever in humans in sev- eral parts of the world. Here we bring together an important body of work in different aspects of the ecology and epidemiology of CCHF to shed light on its transmission dynamics into humans and the role of environmental drivers. These results show that over the years an endemic pattern of CCHFV transmission has been established within livestock, and the frequency of human cases mirrors the seasonal pattern of livestock transmission. Our analysis further suggests that an important fraction of cases in humans might be subclinical, and the volume of transmission into humans might be much larger than previously thought. We examine the potential impact of vaccination, which suggest that not only human vaccination could be more impactful than animal vaccination, but also that targeted strategies in human high risk groups could be very effective. Our results raise important insights for future vaccine development and important questions on the optimal conditions for conducting Phase III vaccine trials in humans.

Mots-clés Agrovoc : fièvre hémorragique de Crimée-Congo, transmission des maladies, épidémiologie, bétail, vaccination, surveillance épidémiologique, modèle de simulation, modèle mathématique, genre humain, distribution géographique, vaccin, vecteur de maladie, maladie de l'homme, modélisation